TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 09, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 09.10.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has found resistance around the longer-term moving average. Price continues to downtrend and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the AUDUSD could attempt a bearish move lower. Opportunities to go short may exist around the longer-term moving average, around any of the key Fib levels, around the previous horizontal support at 0.7140 and around the trend resistance area. A bearish move could find support around the recent swing low at 0.7040.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 09.10.2018

The EURGBP has been bearish and is forming a swing lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that the downtrend may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.8805 and 0.8855, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the trend resistance area.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

EURUSD - 09.10.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the range support area. The EURUSD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price is moving within a horizontal channel at 1.1460-1.1535. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the EURUSD closes out of the channel (break-out trade). If price breaks to the upside, the EURUSD could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.1585 and 1.1620.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 09.10.2018

Price reversed around the 50.0% Fib level and has since been bullish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside momentum may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the identified diagonal support area and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.3020. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.3130, 1.3190 and 1.3285.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 09.10.2018

The NZDUSD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the bearish moving averages and around the diagonal resistance area. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the recent swing low at 0.6425.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 09.10.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD has been finding support around the shorter-term moving average. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1.2785, 1.2895, 1.3005 and 1.3075.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 09.10.2018

Price has been finding resistance around the recent highs and horizontal resistance at 0.9940 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCHF continues to be indecisive after a strong uptrend. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 0.9780, 0.9860 and 0.9940. If price closes above the horizontal resistance at 0.9940, the USDCHF could continue to uptrend.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

USDJPY - 09.10.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price closed below the range support area and has since been bearish. The USDJPY has is below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that price may start down-trending. Opportunities to go short could exist around the diagonal resistance area, around the moving averages and around the previous range support at 113.55.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 09.10.2018

GOLD reversed off the horizontal level at 1185.70 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1181.70, 1185.65, 1196.05, 1204.35, 1207.25 and 1209.55. If GOLD closes below the horizontal level at 1181.70, price could become bearish.