TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 5, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 05.10.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has continued to be bearish and move lower. Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downside momentum could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the previous horizontal support at 0.7140 and around the support and resistance areas of the recent bearish channel.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

US non-farm employment change, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 05.10.2018

The EURGBP closed below the range support area and has since been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that the EURGBP may start down-trending. Price is also moving within a bearish channel. Shorting opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal support at 0.8850, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance area. The EURGBP may find support around the channel support area.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

EURUSD - 05.10.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found resistance around the shorter-term moving average. The EURUSD has been down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the moving averages . Price is currently moving above the recent trend resistance area, suggesting that downside momentum is weakening – the EURUSD could attempt a bullish move. Price may reverse bullish around the recent trend resistance (as support) and around the recent swing low at 1.1470. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance areas at 1.1585 and 1.1620.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

US non-farm employment change, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 05.10.2018

Price has been bullish and has moved above the recent bearish channel. The GBPUSD is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2930, 1.3015, 1.3090 and 1.3190.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

US non-farm employment change, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 05.10.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD continues to be bearish and move lower. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the previous horizontal support at 0.6540 and around the trend resistance area.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

US non-farm employment change, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 05.10.2018

The USDCAD has been bullish but has been finding resistance around the 50.0% Fib level (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages have crossed bullish and are moving sideways, signalling market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal level at 1.2895, around the moving averages and around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

US non-farm employment change, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. Canadian employment and unemployment figures will be announced at the same time.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 05.10.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bullish and uptrend. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that the uptrend could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the bullish channel support around and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. Recent price action has been struggling to reach the channel resistance area, signalling that buying momentum could be weakening. A bearish move below the channel support area may find support around the horizontal levels at 0.9860 and 0.9780.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

US non-farm employment change, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

USDJPY - 05.10.2018

Price has been bearish. The USDJPY has swung below the trend support area and the moving averages, suggesting that the recent uptrend may becoming to an end. The moving averages confirm this – they are starting to tighten and move sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area (as resistance) and around the horizontal levels at 113.05, 113.55, 113.65 and 114.50.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

US non-farm employment change, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 05.10.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD reversed around the horizontal resistance at 1207.25. Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1185.90, 1193.35, 1196.30, 1207.25 and 1210.30.