TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 3, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 03.10.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has continued to be bearish and move lower. Price is down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the previous swing low at 0.7200, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance level at 0.7240. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the channel support area and around the horizontal support at 0.7140.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 2000 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 03.10.2018

The EURGBP has been finding resistance around the horizontal level at 0.8910 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are currently moving sideways – confirming the indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the previous diagonal resistance area (as support) and around the horizontal levels at 0.8855, 0.8915 and 0.8985.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A UK services PMI figure will be released at 0830 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

EURUSD - 03.10.2018

Price has been down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish, suggesting that the EURUSD could attempt another bearish move. Shorting opportunities may exist around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 1.1620 and 1.1655. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent swing low at 1.1510.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 2000 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 03.10.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the selling momentum has continued. The GBPUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the previous swing low at 1.3010, around the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal level at 1.3085. A bearish move may find support around the recent low at 1.2940.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A UK services PMI figure will be released at 0830 UTC today. A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1400 UTC. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 2000 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 03.10.2018

The NZDUSD reversed around the shorter-term moving average and the trend resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be bearish. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the bearish run could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the trend resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6600 and 0.6635.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 2000 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 03.10.2018

The USDCAD continues to be in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and wide, suggesting that price may attempt to swing lower. Selling opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal support at 1.2895. An attempt to swing lower may find support around the recent swing low at 1.2785.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 2000 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 03.10.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bullish and move higher. The USDCHF is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous resistance at 0.9780 and around the trend support area. The USDCHF could continue to find resistance around the recent high at 0.9860.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 2000 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

USDJPY - 03.10.2018

Price has reversed off the longer-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDJPY continues to uptrend. The moving averages are bullish, signalling that the upside momentum may continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around any of the key Fib levels, around the trend support area and around the previous swing high at 113.05. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent swing high at 114.05.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 2000 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 03.10.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD reversed around the previous trend resistance area. Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 1181.70, 1185.90, 1193.35, 1194.15 and 1210.30.