TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 2, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 02.10.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the longer-term moving average and the horizontal level at 0.7240. The AUDUSD continues to be bearish and move lower. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside momentum may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the horizontal levels at 0.7200 and 0.7240 and around the diagonal resistance area. A bearish move may find support around the horizontal support levels at 0.7140 and 0.7085.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1645 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 02.10.2018

Price has been bearish and has swung lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Despite the recent selling momentum, the EURGBP continues to look indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 0.8850, 0.8880 and 0.8910, around the moving averages and around the diagonal resistance area. If the EURGBP closes below the support at 0.8850, price could attempt a bearish move lower.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

EURUSD - 02.10.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD reversed around the horizontal level at 1.1620 and the shorter-term moving average. Price continues to be bearish and move lower. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside momentum may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1570, 1.1620 and 1.1655. The EURUSD may find support around the horizontal support at 1.1530.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1645 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 02.10.2018

The GBPUSD reversed off the trend resistance area and the longer-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to downtrend and be bearish. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal resistance at 1.3090. The GBPUSD could find support around the horizontal levels at 1.3010 and 1.2980.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1645 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 02.10.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish and swing lower. The NZDUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downtrend may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the trend resistance area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6600 and 0.6635.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1645 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 02.10.2018

Price has been finding support and is starting to retrace some of the recent bearish move. The moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that the USDCAD could attempt a bearish move lower. Shorting opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2895 and 1.2980. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the swing low at 1.2785.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1645 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 02.10.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF has been bullish and is swinging higher. Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous resistance at 0.9780, around the bullish moving averages and around the trend support area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1645 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

USDJPY - 02.10.2018

The USDJPY continues to uptrend and be bullish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Long opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the previous swing high at 113.05, around any of the key Fib levels and around the trend support area. The USDJPY could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 114.05.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1645 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 02.10.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the trend resistance area. GOLD has since been bullish. Price is above the moving averages and the trend resistance area, suggesting that the downtrend may now be over. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways, signalling market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the previous trend resistance area (as support) and around the horizontal levels at 1181.70, 1185.90, 1193.30, 1194.15 and 1203.20.