TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – September 28, 2018

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The AUDUSD has been bearish. Price is below the recent bullish channel support area and the moving averages are bearish and steady, all suggesting that the AUDUSD could start down-trending. Opportunities to go short may exist around the previous swing low at 0.7235, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the previous bullish channel support area (as resistance), around the identified diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.7280 and 0.7300. A strong bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support at 0.7140.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP has been finding support around the horizontal level at 0.8890. Price is moving within a bearish channel but continues to look indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the bearish channel, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8850, 0.8890 and 0.8985.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A UK current account figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

Price has been bearish and has swung lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that the downside momentum could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal support levels at 1.1655 and 1.1730, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the trend resistance area. The EURUSD could find support around the horizontal support levels at 1.1620, 1.1570 and 1.1530.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2980, 1.3060, 1.3190 and 1.3285.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A UK current account figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The NZDUSD has been bearish. Price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows and the moving averages are bearish, all signalling that the NZDUSD could start down-trending. Selling opportunities may exist around the previous swing low at 0.6635, around the moving averages and around the trend resistance area. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.6595 and 0.6540.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCAD has been retracing some of the recent bullish move. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that price may attempt to swing higher. Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the horizontal level at 1.2980 and around the diagonal support area. A bullish move higher may find resistance around the horizontal levels at 1.3075, 1.3120 and 1.3195.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A Canadian GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish. The USDCHF has swung above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that price could start up-trending. Long opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 0.9760 and 0.9695, around the moving averages and around the trend support area. The USDCHF could continue to find resistance around 0.9780.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

Price has been bullish and has continued to uptrend. The moving averages are bullish and steady – confirming the upside momentum. If the USDJPY pulls-back, buying opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 113.05, 112.55 and 112.40.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has been bearish and has swung lower. Price is below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that GOLD could start down-trending. Selling opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal support levels at 1188.40, 1193.30 and 1194.15, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the diagonal resistance area.

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