TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – September 26, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 26.09.2018

The AUDUSD continues to move within a bullish channel. Opportunities to go long may exist around the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels, around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.7235 and 0.7225. A bullish move could find resistance around the recent swing high at 0.7300 and the channel resistance area. The moving averages have crossed bearish, signalling that upside momentum is weakening – the AUDUSD could attempt a move below the channel support area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US crude oil inventories figure will be announced at 1430 UTC today. The FOMC will release economic projections and a statement, and announce the official bank rate at 1800 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 26.09.2018

The EURGBP has continued to be bearish. Price has swung below the moving averages and the moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways, all suggesting market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8850, 0.8890, 0.8905 and 0.8985.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

EURUSD - 26.09.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed off the longer-term moving average and the horizontal support at 1.1730. The EURUSD continues to move within a horizontal channel at 1.1730-1.1800. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). Price has been up-trending and the moving averages are bullish, signalling that the EURUSD could attempt a bullish move higher. Buying opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1720, 1.1705, 1.1655 and 1.1620.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A US crude oil inventories figure will be announced at 1430 UTC today. The FOMC will release economic projections and a statement, and announce the official bank rate at 1800 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 26.09.2018

Price has been bullish and is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the GBPUSD closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 1.2980 and 1.2895.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US crude oil inventories figure will be announced at 1430 UTC today. The FOMC will release economic projections and a statement, and announce the official bank rate at 1800 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 26.09.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD reversed around the trend support area. Price continues to uptrend and be bullish. Long opportunities may exist around the trend support area. The moving averages have crossed bearish and are widening, signalling that the NZDUSD could struggle to swing higher. Price could stall or reverse around the recent high at 0.6700. If price closes below the trend support area, the NZDUSD may attempt a bearish move lower.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US crude oil inventories figure will be announced at 1430 UTC today. The FOMC will release economic projections and a statement, and announce the official bank rate at 1800 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC. The RBA will announce the official bank rate and release rate and monetary policy statementS at 2100 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 2200 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 26.09.2018

The USDCAD has become indecisive and is moving sideways (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are also moving sideways – confirming the indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the previous channel resistance area (as support) and around the horizontal levels at 1.2895, 1.2980 and 1.3065.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US crude oil inventories figure will be announced at 1430 UTC today. The FOMC will release economic projections and a statement, and announce the official bank rate at 1800 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 26.09.2018

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are currently moving sideways. The USDJPY may be rejected or reverse around the identified horizontal levels at 0.9550, 0.9600, 0.9665, 0.9690 and 0.9760.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

A US crude oil inventories figure will be announced at 1430 UTC today. The FOMC will release economic projections and a statement, and announce the official bank rate at 1800 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

USDJPY - 26.09.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found support around the horizontal level at 112.85 and has since been bullish. The USDJPY continues to uptrend within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend may continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the channel support area. A move higher may find resistance around the horizontal resistance at 113.00 and around the channel resistance area. Price is looking over-extended, suggesting that the USDJPY may attempt a bearish move. A move below the channel support area could find support around the horizontal support levels at 112.40, 112.10, 111.60 and 111.15.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

A US crude oil inventories figure will be announced at 1430 UTC today. The FOMC will release economic projections and a statement, and announce the official bank rate at 1800 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 26.09.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has reversed off the horizontal level at 1203.50. Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 1188.40, 1193.30, 1195.40, 1203.50 and 1210.30.