TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – September 25, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 25.09.2018

Price continues to uptrend within a bullish channel and be in a retrace phase. Buying opportunities could exist around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels, around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.7230 and around the channel support area. The moving averages are about to cross bearish, suggesting that the AUDUSD may fail to swing higher. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around the recent swing high at 0.7300.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US consumer confidence figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 25.09.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support around the shorter-term moving average. The EURGBP continues to retrace some of the recent bullish move. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that price could swing higher. Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 0.8930, 0.8905 and 0.8890. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.8985 and 0.9050.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

EURUSD - 25.09.2018

The EURUSD has reversed around the horizontal resistance at 1.1795 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be bullish and uptrend. Opportunities to go long could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the horizontal support at 1.1730 and around the trend support area. An attempt to swing higher may find resistance around the horizontal resistance at 1.1800. The moving averages are starting to tighten and move sideways, signalling that buying momentum is weakening. The EURUSD may start ranging between the horizontal levels at 1.1730 and 1.1800. A break to the downside could find support around 1.1720, 1.1705, 1.1655 and 1.1620.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A US consumer confidence figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 25.09.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD has reversed around the moving averages. Price action is forming a bearish reversal pattern (head and shoulder pattern) and the moving averages have crossed bearish and are widening, all signalling that the GBPUSD could start down-trending. Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.3150 and 1.3195 and around the trend support area (as resistance). A bearish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 1.3060, 1.2980 and 1.2895.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US consumer confidence figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 25.09.2018

Price continues to be bearish. The NZDUSD has been up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. Buying opportunities could exist around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6615, 0.6610 and 0.6595. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around the recent highs at 0.6700.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US consumer confidence figure will be released at 1400 UTC today. A business confidence figure for New Zealand will be announced at 0100 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 25.09.2018

Price has been bullish and has moved swung above the bearish channel resistance area. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways, suggesting market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the bearish channel resistance area (as support), around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2895, 1.2980 and 1.3065.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US consumer confidence figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 25.09.2018

The USDCHF has been bullish and has swung above the diagonal resistance area. Price is now looking indecisive. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.9550, 0.9600, 0.9690 and 0.9760.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

A US consumer confidence figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

USDJPY - 25.09.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY reversed around the channel support area and the longer-term moving average. Price continues to be bullish and uptrend within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the upside momentum could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the previous swing high at 112.85, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the channel support area. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area. The USDJPY is at a daily resistance level and price is looking over-extended, all suggesting that price may attempt a bearish move. A move below the channel support area could stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 112.40, 112.05 and 111.65.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

A US consumer confidence figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 25.09.2018

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1188.40, 1193.30, 1195.40, 1203.50 and 1210.30.