TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – September 24, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 24.09.2018

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD found support around the shorter-term moving average. Price is up-trending within a bullish channel and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the longer-term moving average, around any of the key Fib levels, around the previous swing high at 0.7230 and around the channel support area. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the channel resistance area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 24.09.2018

The EURGBP has been bullish. Price was rejected around the horizontal level at 0.9000 (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis) and has since been moving sideways. The EURGBP continues to be indecisive. Trading opportunities could exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.8850, 0.8890, 0.8905, 0.8930, 0.8950, 0.9000 and 0.9050. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that price may attempt a bullish move higher.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

The President of the ECB will speak at 1300 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

EURUSD - 24.09.2018

Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that the upside momentum could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1.1720 and 1.1705, around the longer-term moving average and around the trend support area. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent swing high at 1.1795.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

The President of the ECB will speak at 1300 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 24.09.2018

As identified in Friday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support around the horizontal level at 1.3060. The GBPUSD has been bearish and has moved below a number of key support areas , signalling that the recent uptrend may be over. The moving averages are becoming bearish – confirming the lack of buying momentum. Opportunities to go short could exist around the horizontal levels at 1.3125, 1.3195 and 1.3285, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the previous trend support area (as resistance). A bearish move may find support around the horizontal levels at 1.3060, 1.2985 and 1.2895.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 24.09.2018

The NZDUSD is currently retracing some of the recent bullish move. Price has been up-trending. The moving averages and bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Long opportunities may exist around the longer-term moving average, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6620, 0.6610 and 0.6595. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent swing high at 0.6700.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 24.09.2018

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD was rejected around the horizontal support at 1.2895 and has since been bullish. Price is down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish, suggesting that the downtrend may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average and around the channel resistance area. If the USDCAD breaks to the upside of the channel, a bullish move may find resistance around the horizontal levels at 1.2980 and 1.3065. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal support at 1.2895 and around the channel support area.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 24.09.2018

Price has been bearish and has swung lower (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The USDCHF is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downside momentum could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the previous swing low at 0.9605, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the trend resistance area. An attempt to swing lower could find support around the recent swing low at 0.9550.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

USDJPY - 24.09.2018

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price was bullish and then reversed around the channel resistance area. The USDJPY continues to be bullish and uptrend within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous swing high at 112.40 and around the channel support area. Price is looking over-extended and is struggling to reach the channel resistance area, signalling that the USDJPY may attempt a bearish move below the channel. A bearish move may find support around the horizontal levels at 112.10 and 111.60.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

The Governor of the BOJ will speak at 0535 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 24.09.2018

GOLD has reversed around the horizontal levels at 1193.30 and 1210.30 (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price continues to look choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 1188.40, 1193.30, 1197.50 and 1210.30.