TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – September 20, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 20.09.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has been bullish and has reversed around the bullish channel resistance area. Price is up-trending within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the previous swing high at 0.7230, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the channel support area. The AUDUSD could continue to find resistance around the channel resistance area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 20.09.2018

The EURGBP has become indecisive and is ranging between the recent lows at 0.8865 and the horizontal resistance at 0.8905. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). Trading opportunities could also exist around the previous trend resistance area (as support). If the EURGBP breaks to the upside, price may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.8930, 0.8950, 0.8965 and 0.8995.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A UK retail sales figure will be released at 0830 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

EURUSD - 20.09.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been reversing off the identified diagonal support and resistance areas. The EURUSD continues to be choppy and indecisive. Price is consolidating between the diagonal areas and between the horizontal levels at 1.1655-1.1705. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the consolidations and if the EURUSD closes out of either consolidation (break-out trades). A break to the upside could find resistance around the recent swing high at 1.1720. A break to the downside could find support around the horizontal levels at 1.1645, 1.1620 and 1.1570.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 20.09.2018

Price is moving sideways and is ranging between the horizontal levels at 1.3125 and 1.3195. The GBPUSD has moved below the recent bullish channel, signalling that the uptrend may be over. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). Trading opportunities could also exist around the previous channel support area (as resistance) and around the horizontal levels at 1.3065, 1.2980 and 1.2895.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A UK retail sales figure will be released at 0830 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 20.09.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD has been bullish and has swung higher. Price continues to uptrend. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Long opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 0.6620, 0.6610 and 0.6595, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the trend support area.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 20.09.2018

The USDCAD was rejected around the moving averages and around the previous swing low at 1.2980 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price has since been bearish and has recently found support around the horizontal support at 1.2900 (as also suggested). The USDCAD continues to downtrend within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the previous swing low at 1.2980 and around the channel resistance area. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support at 1.2900 and around the channel support area.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 20.09.2018

Price has been bullish and is now looking indecisive. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.9600, 0.9675, 0.9690 and 0.9760.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will release a monetary policy assessment at 0730 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

USDJPY - 20.09.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY has been finding support around the previous swing high and around the channel support area. Price continues to uptrend within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that the upside momentum may continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the previous swing high at 112.10, around the longer-term moving average and around the channel support area. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 112.40 and around the channel resistance area. A bearish move may find support around the horizontal level at 111.65.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 20.09.2018

Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 1188.40, 1193.30, 1197.50 and 1210.30.