TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – September 19, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 19.09.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has closed above the range resistance area and has since been bullish. The AUDUSD is above the recent consolidation and the moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening, all signalling that price may start up-trending. Buying opportunities could exist around the previous range resistance at 0.7230, around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal support at 0.7140. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

US crude oil inventories is at 1430 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 19.09.2018

Price reversed around the longer-term moving average and around the trend resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP has since been bearish. Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the previous consolidation support at 0.8890, around the bearish moving averages and around the trend resistance area. A bearish move could find support around the recent lows at 0.8865. A break to the upside could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.8930, 0.8950 and 0.8965.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A UK CPI figure will be released at 0830 UTC today. This is followed by a speech from the President of the ECB at 1300 UTC.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

EURUSD - 19.09.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has been reversing off the horizontal resistance at 1.1720 and the trend support area. Price has been up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the upside momentum may continue. Long opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.1645. The EURUSD has been struggling to swing higher and recently formed a lower swing high, suggesting that upside momentum is weakening. Price may reverse bearish around the identified diagonal resistance and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.1705 and 1.1720.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

The President of the ECB will speak at 1300 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1430 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 19.09.2018

The GBPUSD has been finding support around the previous swing high at 1.3135 and around the bullish channel support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the channel support area and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. The GBPUSD is currently ranging between the horizontal support at 1.3125 and the horizontal resistance at 1.3165. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal level at 1.3065.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A UK CPI figure will be released at 0830 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1430 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 19.09.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed bullish off the trend support area. The NZDUSD has been bullish and is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and starting to widen, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the bullish moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6590 and 0.6540. Price may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.6610 and 0.6620.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

US crude oil inventories is at 1430 UTC today. This is followed by a New Zealand GDP figure at 2245 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 19.09.2018

Price has been bearish and has swung lower. The USDCAD is down-trending and is moving within a bearish channel. The moving averages are crossing bearish, suggesting that the downtrend could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around the previous swing low at 1.2980, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance area. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal support at 1.2900 and around the channel support area.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

US crude oil inventories is at 1430 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 19.09.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF has been bearish and continues to move lower. Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the recent swing high at 0.9675. A bearish move may find support around the recent swing low at 0.9605.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

US crude oil inventories is at 1430 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

USDJPY - 19.09.2018

The USDJPY has been bullish and has swung higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to uptrend within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Long opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal resistance at 112.10, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the channel support area. The USDJPY could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 112.40 and the channel resistance area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

US crude oil inventories is at 1430 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 19.09.2018

Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 1188.40, 1193.30, 1197.50 and 1210.30.