TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – September 18, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 18.09.2018

The AUDUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 0.7085 and the horizontal resistance at 0.72230. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the AUDUSD closes out of the range (break-out trade).

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 18.09.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP closed below the horizontal channel support area and has since been bearish. Price is below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that the selling momentum may continue. Opportunities to go short could exist around the previous horizontal channel support and resistance areas, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the trend resistance area.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

The President of the ECB will speak at 0715 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

EURUSD - 18.09.2018

Price reversed off the trend support area and has since been bullish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURUSD is up-trending. Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous resistance at 1.1650 and around the trend support area. The moving averages are starting to tighten and move sideways, signalling that upside momentum could be weakening. Price could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 1.1720.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

The President of the ECB will speak at 0715 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 18.09.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found support around the channel support area and has since been bullish. The GBPUSD is up-trending within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the previous swing high at 1.3135, around the moving averages and around the bullish channel support area. Price has been struggling to reach the channel resistance area, suggesting that the GBPUSD may attempt a bearish move. A move below the channel support area may find support around the horizontal level at 1.3070.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 18.09.2018

The NZDUSD reversed around the horizontal level at 0.6595 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price has since been bullish and could be forming the start of an uptrend. The moving averages confirm this – they are bullish and steady. Buying opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.6595, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the trend support area. The NZDUSD could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.6610 and 0.6620.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 18.09.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD has been reversing around the horizontal level at 1.3015 and the 38.2% Fib level. Price has been down-trending but is now looking indecisive. The moving averages have crossed and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 1.2900, 1.2980, 1.3015, 1.3065 and 1.3120, around the moving averages and around the diagonal resistance area.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 18.09.2018

Price has been bearish and has swung below some key support areas. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downside momentum could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9635 and 0.9675.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

USDJPY - 18.09.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the previous horizontal resistance at 111.65 and has since been bullish. The USDJPY continues to uptrend within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal resistance at 112.10, around the bullish moving averages and around the channel support area. The USDJPY may be rejected or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

The BOJ will release a monetary policy statement and have a press conference between 0300-0600 UTC tomorrow.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 18.09.2018

GOLD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 1188.40, 1193.30, 1210.30 and 1214.00.