TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – September 17, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 17.09.2018

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has reversed off the 61.8% Fib level. The AUDUSD is now looking indecisive – price is ranging between the recent swing low at 0.7085 and the horizontal resistance at 0.7230. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the AUDUSD closes out of the range (break-out trade). The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

Australian monetary policy meeting minutes will be released at 0130 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 17.09.2018

Price has been reversing off the horizontal channel support and resistance areas (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis) and continues to be indecisive. The moving averages are tight and crossing frequently – confirming the indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if the EURGBP moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.8950, 0.8965 and 0.9000.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

EURUSD - 17.09.2018

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has been finding support around the trend support area. Price continues to uptrend – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. Buying opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the trend support area and around the horizontal support at 1.1570. A bullish move may find resistance around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.1650 and 1.1720 and around the shorter-term moving average.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 17.09.2018

The GBPUSD has been finding support around the bullish channel support area and the longer-term moving average (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price has been up-trending within a bullish channel. The GBPUSD is struggling to reach the channel resistance area though, signalling that buying momentum is weakening – price could break to the downside. Long opportunities may exist around the channel support area, around the longer-term moving average and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.3070. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average, around the recent swing high at 1.3135 and around the channel resistance area.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 17.09.2018

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.6500, 0.6595 and 0.6620.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 17.09.2018

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has been finding resistance around the longer-term moving average. The USDCAD has been down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish, signalling that price could attempt a bearish move. Selling opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the longer-term moving average, around the trend resistance area and around the previous swing low at 1.3120. A bearish move could find support around the horizontal levels at 1.3015 and 1.2980.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 17.09.2018

The USDCHF has been bearish. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum (just like other USD pairs). The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.9635, 0.9760 and 0.9815, around the moving averages and around the support and resistance areas of the potential bearish channel.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

USDJPY - 17.09.2018

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY has reversed around the bullish channel resistance area. Price is up-trending within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 111.75 and 111.65 and around the channel support area. An attempt to swing higher could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 112.10 and the channel resistance area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 17.09.2018

Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1188.40, 1193.30, 1210.30 and 1214.00 and around the moving averages.