TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – September 14, 2018
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has reversed around the horizontal resistance at 0.7230. Price has been bullish. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.7130.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is. Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.
US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
The EURGBP has been reversing off the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive and move within the horizontal channel at 0.8890-0.8930. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if the EURGBP closes out of the channel (break-out trade). If price breaks to the downside, the EURGBP may continue to downtrend. If price breaks to the upside, the EURGBP may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.8950, 0.8965 and 0.9000.
Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.
The Governor of the BOE will speak at 1000 UTC today.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price closed above the range resistance area and has since been bullish. The EURUSD is above the recent range and the moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that price could start up-trending. Long opportunities may exist around the previous range resistance at 1.1650, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the trend support area. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.1710 and 1.1730.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.
US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price reversed around the shorter-term moving average and has since swung higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD continues to uptrend within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.3070, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the channel support area. Price is struggling to reach the channel resistance area, signalling that upside momentum is weakening – the GBPUSD may break to the downside of the bullish channel. A bearish move may find support around the horizontal levels at 1.2980 and 1.2965.
Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.
The Governor of the BOE will speak at 1000 UTC today. US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The NZDUSD has become indecisive. Price is ranging between the recent lows at 0.6500 and the horizontal resistance at 0.6620. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the NZDUSD closes out of the range (break-out trade). The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that price could move up to the range resistance area.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.
US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCAD has been down-trending but is currently moving sideways. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 1.2980 and the horizontal resistance at 1.3015. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCAD moves out of the range (break-out trade). The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the trend resistance area. A bearish move lower may find support at 1.2900.
The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.
US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF has been finding support around the horizontal channel support area. Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCHF closes out of the range (break-out trade).
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.
US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
Price closed above the horizontal resistance at 111.80 and has since been bullish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDJPY is above the recent consolidation area and price action has formed a bullish channel, all signalling that price may start up-trending. The moving averages confirm this – they are bullish and steady. Buying opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 111.80, 111.75 and 111.65, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the channel support area. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the channel resistance area.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.
US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1188.40, 1201.25, 1210.30 and 1213.70. The moving averages have recently become bullish, suggesting that price could attempt a bullish move. Long opportunities may exist around the moving averages.
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