TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – September 13, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 13.09.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price moved above the horizontal channel resistance area and has since been bullish. The AUDUSD is above the recent trend resistance area and the moving averages have crossed bullish, signalling that the recent downtrend is over. Price is now looking a little indecisive. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the previous trend resistance area (as support) and around the horizontal levels at 0.7085, 0.7130, 0.7210 and 0.7230.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 13.09.208

Price reversed around the longer-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) and then found support at 0.8890 (as also suggested). The EURGBP has since moved above the bearish channel resistance area. Price is moving sideways and is looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 0.8890-0.8930. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if the EURGBP closes out of the channel (break-out trade). If price breaks to the upside, the EURGBP could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.8950, 0.8965 and 0.9000.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

The BOE will announce the official bank rate, MPC votes and a monetary policy summary at 1100 UTC today. The ECB will announce the official bank rate at 1145 UTC. This is followed by a ECB press conference at 1230 UTC.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

EURUSD - 13.09.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has reversed around the range resistance area. Price continues to be indecisive and range between the horizontal support at 1.1530 and the horizontal resistance at 1.1650. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the EURUSD closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.1680, 1.1710 and 1.1730. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

The ECB will announce the official bank rate at 1145 UTC today. This is followed by a ECB press conference at 1230 UTC. US CPI figures will be released at the same time.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 13.09.2018

The GBPUSD reversed around the bullish channel support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) and then found resistance around the recent swing high at 1.3065 (as also suggested). Price continues to uptrend within a bullish channel. Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the channel support area. The GBPUSD is struggling to reach the channel resistance area and the moving averages are starting to tighten, signalling that upside momentum is weakening – price could break to the downside. A bearish move may find support around the horizontal levels at 1.2980, 1.2965 and 1.2895.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

The BOE will announce the official bank rate, MPC votes and a monetary policy summary at 1100 UTC today. US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 13.09.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bullish. The NZDUSD is above the moving averages and the moving averages are tight and moving sideways – suggesting market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.6500, 0.6540, 0.6615 and 0.6625.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 13.09.2018

Price has been bearish and has swung lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCAD is down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing lows and swing highs. The moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that the downtrend could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the previous swing low at 1.3120 and around the trend resistance area. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 1.2985 and 1.2900.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 13.09.2018

The USDCHF continues to be indecisive and move within the large horizontal channel at 0.9645-0.9760. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the USDCHF closes out of the channel (break-out trade).

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

USDJPY - 13.09.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY reversed around the horizontal level at 111.20. Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 110.45, 110.75, 111.20, 111.65, 111.75 and 111.80. If the USDJPY closes above the horizontal level at 111.80, price could attempt a bullish move higher.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 13.09.2018

Price has found resistance around 1207.90 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). GOLD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the current lack of trend momentum – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 1188.40, 1197.30, 1208.00 and 1213.70.