TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – September 12, 2018

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD reversed around the shorter-term moving average and has since swung lower. Price is now moving sideways within a horizontal channel at 0.7085-0.7130. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the AUDUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). Price has been down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.7160, 0.8210 and 0.7230.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US PPI figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1430 UTC.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP has been finding resistance around the shorter-term moving average and the horizontal level at 0.8920. Price continues to move within a bearish channel and downtrend. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the selling momentum may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8920, 0.8950, 0.8965 and 0.9000. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal support at 0.8890 and around the channel support area.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the range resistance area. The EURUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.1680, 1.1710 and 1.1730.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A US PPI figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1430 UTC.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price reversed around the shorter-term moving average and around the previous resistance at 1.2970 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD has since been rejected at 1.3035 (as also suggested). Price is up-trending within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2970 and 1.2895. The GBPUSD may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.3035 and 1.3065 and around the channel resistance area.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US PPI figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1430 UTC.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD reversed around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal level at 0.6540. Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downside momentum could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal level at 0.6540. The recent bearish swing has struggling to swing lower, suggesting that the NZDUSD could attempt a bullish move or become indecisive.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US PPI figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1430 UTC.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCAD moved below the range support area and has since been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows – the USDCAD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening and the price has formed a bearish channel, all signalling that the downtrend may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the previous swing low at 1.3120, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the channel resistance area. The USDCAD may continue to find support around the channel support area.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US PPI figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1430 UTC.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed off the horizontal channel resistance area. The USDCHF continues to be indecisive and move within a horizontal channel. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price closes out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around the horizontal levels at 0.9810 and 0.9865.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

A US PPI figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1430 UTC.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

Price has been bullish. The USDJPY is looking choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 110.45, 110.75, 111.20, 111.75 and 111.80.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

A US PPI figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1430 UTC.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GOLD continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 1184.45, 1188.40, 1206.10 and 1207.90.

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