TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – September 11, 2018

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support around the recent lows at 0.7100. The AUDUSD has been down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.7160, 0.7210 and 0.7230. A bearish move may continue to find support around 0.7100.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish and is down-trending within a bearish channel (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that the downside momentum could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 0.8920, 0.8950 and 0.8965, around the bearish moving averages and around the channel resistance area. The EURGBP could be rejected or reverse around the channel support area.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A UK average earnings index figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

The EURUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price moved below the recent range but has now formed a new range – the EURUSD is ranging between the recent swing low at 1.1530 and the horizontal resistance at 1.1650. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the price closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.1680, 1.1710 and 1.1730.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD has been finding resistance around the horizontal level at 1.3035. Price has since swung above the resistance level. Price action has formed a bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish, signalling that the GBPUSD could start up-trending. Opportunities to go long may exist around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1.3035, 1.3020 and 1.2970, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the channel support area. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the channel resistance area.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A UK average earnings index figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that the NZDUSD may swing lower. Shorting opportunities could exist around the previous swing low at 0.6540, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around any of the key Fib levels. An attempt to swing lower may find support around the recent lows at 0.6510/15.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. The USDCAD is ranging between the recent swing low at 1.3120 and the recent highs at 1.3210. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal level at 1.3100.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF has become indecisive and has found resistance around 0.9755. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 0.9645-0.9760. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the USDCHF closes out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.9810 and 0.9865.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

The USDJPY has been finding resistance around the bearish channel resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price has been choppy and indecisive but is moving in a slight downward direction. The USDJPY has formed a bearish channel, signalling that the slight downward momentum could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 111.75 and 111.80. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the moving averages, around the recent swing low at 110.45 and around the channel support area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed off the horizontal level at 1191.30. GOLD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 1184.45, 1191.30, 1206.10, 1207.90 and 1213.70.

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