TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – September 10, 2018

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD moved below the horizontal channel support area and has since been bearish. Price action has formed a series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs – the AUDUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal support at 0.7160, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the trend resistance area. Price could continue to find support around the recent lows at 0.7100.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP moved below the range support area and has since been bearish (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price action has formed a bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all suggesting that the downside momentum may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.8965 and 0.9000, around the channel resistance area and around the bearish moving averages. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the recent swing low at 0.8920 and around the channel support area.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

UK GDP and manufacturing production figures will be released at 0830 UTC today.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has been reversing off the horizontal levels at 1.1545 and 1.1650. The EURUSD is looking indecisive. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 1.1540 and the horizontal resistance at 1.1650. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the EURUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.1680, 1.1710 and 1.1730.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price reversed around the horizontal resistance at 1.3020 (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis) and continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1.2790, 1.2970, 1.3020 and 1.3035.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

UK GDP and manufacturing production figures will be released at 0830 UTC today.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The NZDUSD has been bearish and has swung lower. Price is down-trending. The moving averages have just crossed bearish and are starting to widen, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the previous swing low at 0.6535, around any of the key Fib levels and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCAD has become indecisive and is moving sideways (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1.3100, 1.3120 and 1.3215. If price closes above the resistance at 1.3215, the USDCAD may attempt a bullish move higher.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been down-trending. The moving averages are signalling market indecision though – they have been crossing and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the trend resistance area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9645 and 0.9755.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the longer-term moving average. The USDJPY is looking choppy and indecisive but price action has formed a swing lower and a potential bearish channel, signalling that the USDJPY may become bearish. Selling opportunities could exist around the horizontal resistance at 111.20, around the longer-term moving average and around the channel resistance area. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average, around the horizontal support levels at 110.75 and 110.50 and around the channel support area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GOLD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1184.45, 1191.30, 1206.10 and 1207.90.

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