TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – September 07, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 07.09.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been reversing off the support and resistance areas of the range. The AUDUSD continues to be indecisive and has now formed a horizontal channel at 0.7160-0.7210. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.7230 and 0.7240.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

US non-farm employment change, average hourly earnings and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 07.09.2018

Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. The EURGBP is ranging between the recent swing low at 0.8965 and the recent swing high at 0.9050. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). Trading opportunities may also exist around the other horizontal levels at 0.8940, 0.8445 and 0.9095.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news that will directly impact this currency pair today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

EURUSD - 07.09.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD found resistance at the horizontal level at 1.1650. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages confirm this – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified support and resistance levels at 1.1535, 1.1545, 1.1650, 1.1685, 1.1710 and 1.1730.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

US non-farm employment change, average hourly earnings and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 07.09.2018

The GBPUSD reversed around the horizontal resistance at 1.2965 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is now looking indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal support and resistance at 1.2790, 1.2965, 1.3020 and 1.3035.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

US non-farm employment change, average hourly earnings and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 07.09.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the 38.2% Fib level. The NZDUSD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. Opportunities to go short could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6615, 0.6625 and 0.6670. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways, signalling market indecision. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the recent lows at 0.6535.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

US non-farm employment change, average hourly earnings and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDCHF - 07.09.2018

Price has been bearish, after breaking to the upside of the horizontal channel. The USDCAD is retracing some of the recent rally. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways, suggesting indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 1.3100, 1.3160 and 1.3210. If price closes above the horizontal resistance at 1.3210, the USDCAD could start up-trending.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

US non-farm employment change, average hourly earnings and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. Canadian employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at the same time.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 07.09.2018

The USDCHF has been bearish and has swung below the recent lows and horizontal support at 0.9655. The moving averages are bearish and widening and price is below the recent consolidation area, all signalling that the downtrend may now continue. Opportunities to go short could exist around the previous horizontal support at 0.9655, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal resistance at 0.9755.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

US non-farm employment change, average hourly earnings and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

USDJPY - 07.09.2018

The USDJPY has been bearish and has moved below the recent consolidation area. The moving averages are bearish, suggesting that price could start down-trending. If the USDJPY starts retracing, shorting opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the previous horizontal support at 110.75 and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

US non-farm employment change, average hourly earnings and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 07.09.2018

Just like most USD currency pairs, GOLD has become indecisive and is lacking trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1184.45, 1191.30, 1207.90 and 1213.70.