TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – September 05, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 05.09.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bearish and has swung lower. The AUDUSD is now ranging between the horizontal support at 0.7170 and the recent swing high at 0.7230. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around the horizontal level at 0.7240.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

An Australian trade balance figure will be released at 0130 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 05.09.2018

Price has been finding support around the horizontal level at 0.8990 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.8940, 0.8945, 0.8990, 0.9025 and 0.9095.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A UK services PMI figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

EURUSD - 05.09.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has been bearish and has swing lower. Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1590, 1.1630, 1.1645, 1.1685 and 1.1710. The EURUSD may find support around the horizontal support at 1.1535.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news that will directly impact this currency pair today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 05.09.2018

The GBPUSD was bearish and then reversed around the horizontal support at 1.2805 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price action has formed a lower swing low and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that the GBPUSD could start down-trending. Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels, around the horizontal level at 1.2930 and around the previous bullish channel support area (as resistance). Price could find support around the horizontal support levels at 1.2815 and 1.2805.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A UK services PMI figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 05.09.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish and move lower. The NZDUSD is forming a swing below key support levels and the moving averages are bearish, all suggesting that price may start down-trending. If the NZDUSD starts retracing, selling opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the bearish moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6590 and 0.6625. Price may continue to find support around 0.6540.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news that will directly impact this currency pair today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 05.09.2018

Price has continued to be bullish and swing higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCAD has swung above a number of resistance levels and the moving averages are bullish and steady, all signalling that price could start up-trending. Buying opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1.3170 and 1.3100, around any of the key Fib levels and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the recent high at 1.3200.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A Canadian trade balance figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a BOC rate statement and announcement at 1400 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 05.09.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF moved above the range resistance area and has since been bullish. Price has been down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. Opportunities to go short could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.9770, 0.9815 and 0.9865 and around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels. The moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening, signalling that an attempt to swing lower may fail. Opportunities to go long could exist around the moving averages and around the previous support and resistance areas of the range.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

There is no major scheduled news that will directly impact this currency pair today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

USDJPY - 05.09.2018

The USDJPY continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 110.75 and the horizontal resistance at 111.80. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDJPY closes out of the range (break-out trade). Trading opportunities may also exist around the identified diagonal support area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

There is no major scheduled news that will directly impact this currency pair today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 05.09.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price closed below the horizontal channel support area and has since been bearish. GOLD is below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that price may move lower. Shorting opportunities could exist around the previous support and resistance areas of the range and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal support at 1184.45.