TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – September 04, 2018

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD reversed around the shorter-term moving average. Price has since become bullish and continues to retrace the recent bearish swing. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the AUDUSD could swing lower. Opportunities to go short may exist around the previous horizontal support at 0.7240, around the longer-term moving average and around any of the key Fib levels. An attempt to swing lower could stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.7210, 0.7190 and 0.7180.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today. An Australian GDP figure will be released at 0130 UTC.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP has been bullish but continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8935, 0.8945, 0.8990 and 0.9095.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

UK inflation report hearings will be released at 1215 UTC today.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support around the horizontal level at 1.1590. The moving averages are still bearish and widening, signalling that the EURUSD could swing lower. Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the identified diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1645, 1.1685, 1.1710 and 1.1730. A bearish move could find support around the horizontal support levels at 1.1590 and 1.1535.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price has failed to swing higher and has become bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD is below the recent bullish channel and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that price may continue it’s bearish run. Selling opportunities could exist around the previous channel support area (as resistance), around the bearish moving averages and around the horizontal level at 1.2930. Price may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 1.2850 and 1.2805.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

UK inflation report hearings will be released at 1215 UTC. A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1400 UTC.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD has continued to be bearish and move lower. Price is below a number of key support levels and the moving averages are bearish and steady, all signalling that the NZDUSD could start down-trending. If price starts retracing, opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.6625 and 0.6670. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.6590 and 0.6545.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCAD has continued to be bullish and move higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is lacking trend direction but the moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that the USDCAD may move higher. Opportunities to go long could exist around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1.3100 and 1.3070, around the moving averages and around any of the key Fib levels. A swing higher may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 1.3170.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price is moving sideways and has become indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are also moving sideways and are tightening. The USDCHF is ranging between the recent low at 0.9655 and the horizontal resistance at 0.9715, Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around the horizontal levels at 0.9745, 0.9770 and 0.9810.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

Price is currently attempting a bullish move. The USDJPY continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 109.85, 110.65, 110.75, 111.20, 111.50 and 111.80.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GOLD continues to be indecisive and move within a horizontal channel at 1197.30-1207.90. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price closes out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance level at 1213.70. A break to the downside may stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 1184.45 and 1165.70.

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