TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – September 03, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 03.09.2018

Price has been bearish and has swung below the recent consolidation area. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the AUDUSD may push lower. Selling opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.7205 and 0.7240, around any of the key Fib levels and around the bearish moving averages. Price may find support around the recent lows at 0.7180.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

The RBA will release a rate statement and announce the official cash rate at 0430 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 03.09.2018

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price was rejected around the 23.6% Fib level and the shorter-term moving average and then moved lower. The EURGBP is currently retracing some of the recent bearish move. The moving averages are bearish, signalling that price could attempt to swing lower. Shorting opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the horizontal level at 0.8990 and around the longer-term moving average. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.8945, 0.8940 and 0.8900.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A UK manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

EURUSD - 03.09.2018

The EURUSD reversed around the channel resistance area and the moving averages and has since been bearish (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows and the moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the EURUSD may move lower. Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1645, 1.1680, 1.1710 and 1.1730. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.1590 and 1.1535.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 03.09.2018

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD has reversed off the bullish channel support area. Price continues to uptrend within a bullish channel. Buying opportunities may exist around the channel support area. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways, signalling that upside momentum is weakening. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.3020 and 1.3035. A bearish move below the channel support area could find support around the horizontal levels at 1.2850 and 1.2805.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A UK manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 03.09.2018

Price has been bearish. The NZDUSD is below the recent consolidation and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that price may start down-trending. If the NZDUSD starts retracing, selling opportunities could exist around the previous swing low at 0.6625, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal level at 0.6670. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.6595 and 0.6550.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 03.09.2018

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price found resistance around the 61.8% Fib level and the trend resistance area. The USDCAD has since been bullish though and has swung higher. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the buying momentum could continue. Long opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the previous trend resistance (as support) and around the bullish moving averages. A swing higher could find resistance around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.3075, 1.3100 and 1.3170.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 03.09.2018

The USDCHF found support around the channel support area (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price has since swung above the channel resistance area. The moving averages are starting to tighten and move sideways, signalling market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the previous support and resistance areas of the bearish channel, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9655, 0.9745 and 0.9770.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

USDJPY - 03.09.2018

The USDJPY continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 109.85, 110.65, 110.75, 111.20, 111.50 and 111.80.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 03.09.2018

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has been reversing off the identified horizontal levels. GOLD has become indecisive and is moving within a horizontal channel at 1197.30-1207.05. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price closes out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 1213.70 and 1216.35. A break to the downside may stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 1184.45 and 1165.70.

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