TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 22, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 22.08.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bullish and has reversed off the channel resistance area. The AUDUSD is up-trending within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the channel support area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.7320 and 0.7280. Price may find resistance around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.7380, 0.7390 and 0.7445.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

US crude oil inventories is at 1430 UTC today. FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1800 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 22.08.2018

Price has been finding support around the longer-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) but is looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.8900, 0.8940, 0.8945, 0.8990 and 0.9020.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

EURUSD - 22.08.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has continued to be bullish and move higher. Price has swung above a number of key resistance levels and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that the upside momentum may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the horizontal levels at 1.1535, 1.1445 and 1.1430 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. The EURUSD may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 1.1625.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

US crude oil inventories is at 1430 UTC today. FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1800 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 22.08.2018

The GBPUSD has continued to be bullish and move higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price was recently rejected at the horizontal level at 1.2925 (as also suggested). The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that the GBPUSD could start up-trending. If price starts retracing, opportunities to go long may exist around the horizontal levels at 1.2895 and 1.2810, around any of the key Fib levels and around the bullish moving averages. The GBPUSD could find resistance around the horizontal levels at 1.2925 and 1.2975.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

US crude oil inventories is at 1430 UTC today. FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1800 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 22.08.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price continued to be bullish and then found resistance at the horizontal level at 0.6720. The NZDUSD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Long opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the trend support area and around the bullish moving averages. Price may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.6720 and 0.6760.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

US crude oil inventories is at 1430 UTC today. FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1800 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 22.08.2018

Price reversed around the shorter-term moving average and around the previous horizontal support at 1.3050 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are still bearish and widening, signalling that the USDCAD could move lower. Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3050 and 1.3090. There are a number of support levels at 1.3020, 1.3015, 1.3000 and 1.2965. Price may be rejected or reverse at any of these levels.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A Canadian core retail sales figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today. US crude oil inventories is at 1430 UTC. FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1800 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 22.08.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to move lower. The USDCHF is still below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that price may start down-trending. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.9900 and 0.9920. The USDCHF may continue to find support around the recent lows at 0.9835.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

US crude oil inventories is at 1430 UTC today. FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1800 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

USDJPY - 22.08.2018

The USDJPY found resistance around the longer-term moving average and the trend resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price has since been bullish and has moved above the trend resistance area, suggesting that selling momentum is weakening. The moving averages confirm this – they are starting to move sideways. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the previous trend resistance (as support), around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal support levels at 110.05 and 109.85. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 110.65, 111.00 and 111.40.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

US crude oil inventories is at 1430 UTC today. FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1800 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 22.08.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found support around the shorter-term moving average and the trend support area and has continued to be bullish. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the trend support area and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. GOLD could find resistance around the horizontal levels at 1197.90, 1207.20 and 1216.20.