TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 21, 2018

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD reversed around the bullish channel support area and has continued to move higher. Price continues to uptrend within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the channel support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.7280. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.7375 and 0.7390.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP found support around the longer-term moving average and has since swung higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows – the EURGBP is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the previous swing high at 0.8975, around the bullish moving averages and around the horizontal support at 0.8940. Price may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 0.9020.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price is being rejected around the horizontal level at 1.1535. The EURUSD has formed an inverted head and shoulder pattern and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that price could start up-trending. Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1.1445 and 1.1430. The EURUSD could find resistance around the horizontal levels at 1.1535 and 1.1625.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price closed above the range resistance area and has since been bullish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD is above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that price may start up-trending. Opportunities to go long could exist around the previous range resistance area at 1.2810 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.2895, 1.2925 and 1.2975.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD found support around the trend support area and has since been bullish. Price has swung higher and is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that the buying momentum could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the trend support area, around the bullish moving averages and around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.6605. A swing higher could find resistance around the horizontal levels at 0.6720 and 0.6760.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A New Zealand retail sales figure will be released at 2245 UTC today.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCAD has been bearish and has moved below the key support area at 1.3050. The moving averages have crossed bearish and are widening, suggesting that price may move lower. Selling opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 1.3050 and 1.3090 and around the moving averages. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 1.3005 and 1.2965.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish and has swung below the horizontal support areas. The USDCHF is below the recent consolidation and the moving averages have crossed bearish, all signalling that price could start down-trending. Shorting opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.9900 and 0.9920 and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages. The USDCHF could continue to find support around the recent lows at 0.9880.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed off the triangle pattern resistance area. The USDJPY has since been bearish and has moved below some key support levels. Price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows, signalling a downtrend. The moving averages confirm this – they are bearish and widening. Opportunities to go short could exist around the horizontal levels at 110.15, 110.35 and 110.65, around the bearish moving averages and around the trend resistance area. Price may continue to find support around the recent lows at 109.85.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GOLD has been bullish and has moved higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages have crossed bullish and are steady, signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the trend support area and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1207.15 and 1216.20.

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