TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 20, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 20.08.2018

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the moving averages and then formed a bullish move. The AUDUSD continues to retrace the recent bearish move. Price action has formed a bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the upside momentum may continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the channel support area, around the horizontal levels at 0.7280 and 0.7255 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.7345, 0.7375 and 0.7390.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

The Governor of the RBA will speak at 2200 UTC. This is followed by the release of monetary policy meeting minutes at 0130 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 20.08.2018

Price has been bullish. The moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening and price action has formed a potential trend support area, all suggesting that the EURGBP could move higher. Long opportunities may exist around the identified trend support area, around the bullish moving averages and around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.8955. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the recent highs at 0.9020.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

EURUSD - 20.08.2018

The EURUSD closed above the range resistance area but price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1.1300, 1.1430, 1.1535 and 1.1625.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 20.08.2018

Just like the EURUSD, the GBPUSD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Price is moving sideways and is ranging between the recent swing low at 1.2665 and the recent swing high at 1.2810. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the GBPUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.2890, 1.2925 and 1.2975.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 20.08.2018

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price closed above the range resistance area and has since been bullish. The NZDUSD is above the recent consolidation and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that price may start up-trending. Opportunities to go long could exist around the diagonal support area, around the previous range resistance at 0.6605 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. A bullish move may find resistance around the previous horizontal support at 0.6720.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 20.08.2018

Price has reversed at the range resistance and range support areas (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The USDCAD continues to be indecisive and range between the horizontal support at 1.3050 and the horizontal resistance at 1.3170. The moving averages confirm the lack of trend momentum – they have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.3005 and 1.2965.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 20.08.2018

The USDCHF continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price action has formed a number of ranges and a tightening triangular consolidation pattern. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the triangular pattern and around the identified horizontal levels at 0.9900, 0.9920, 0.9975, 0.9980 and 0.9985.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

USDJPY - 20.08.2018

Just like other USD pairs, the USDJPY is indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 110.15, 111.00, 111.40 and 111.50 and around the support and resistance areas of the identified triangular pattern.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 20.08.2018

Price has been bullish. GOLD has moved above the trend resistance area and the moving averages, suggesting that the downtrend may be over. The moving averages are still bearish but are becoming bullish, suggesting that selling momentum is weakening. Buying opportunities could exist around the identified diagonal support area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal support levels at 1173.75 and 1165.85. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1192.60, 1207.20 and 1216.20.