TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 17, 2018

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The AUDUSD continues to be in a retrace move. Selling opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal support at 0.7350. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the moving averages and around the recent swing low at 0.7205. Recent price action has been moving sideways and the moving averages are also moving sideways, suggesting that price may attempt a bullish move.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.8875, 0.8900, 0.8955 and 0.9020.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the shorter-term moving average – the downtrend could be over. The EURUSD has since been moving sideways and has become indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 1.1300 and the horizontal resistance at 1.1430. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the EURUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price found resistance around the longer-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) but has since been bullish. Just like other currency pairs, the GBPUSD is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between the recent lows at 1.2665 and the recent swing high at 1.2810. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the GBPUSD closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.2890, 1.2925 and 1.2970.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD reversed off the range resistance area. Price continues to be indecisive and range between the horizontal support at 0.6545 and the horizontal resistance at 0.6605. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the NZDUSD closes out of the range (break-out trade).

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCAD continues to find resistance around the horizontal resistance at 1.3170 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1.2965, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3090 and 1.3170.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A Canadian CPI figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed again around the horizontal resistance at 0.9980. The USDCHF continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.9870, 0.9900, 0.9920, 0.9980 and 0.9985.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

Price continues to be choppy and indecisive (just like other USD pairs). The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the lack of trend momentum. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 110.15, 110.40, 111.40 and 111.50.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has been finding resistance around the shorter-term moving average. Price continues to downtrend and be bearish. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the identified trend resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1180.85 and 1192.75.

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