TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 16, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 16.08.2018

Price has been bullish. The AUDUSD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish, suggesting that the downtrend could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal support at 0.7350.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

The Governor of the RBA will speak at 2330 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 16.08.2018

Price has moved out of the range but continues to lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.8875, 0.8900, 0.8940 and 0.9025.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A UK retail sales figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

EURUSD - 16.08.2018

The EURUSD is down-trending, price is currently in a retrace phase. Selling opportunities may exist around the recent swing high at 1.1430. The EURUSD is above the moving averages and the moving averages are starting to tighten and move sideways, suggesting that downside momentum could be weakening. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the moving averages and around the horizontal support levels at 1.1365 and 1.1300.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 16.08.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD has continued to be bearish and move lower. Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2735 and 1.2810. If the GBPUSD suddenly becomes bullish, price may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.2855, 1.2895, 1.2925 and 1.2970.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A UK retail sales figure will be released at 0830 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 16.08.2018

Price has been down-trending but is now moving sideways. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. The NZDUSD is ranging between the horizontal support at 0.6545 and the horizontal resistance at 0.6605. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade).

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 16.08.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the horizontal resistance area at 1.3165. The USDCAD continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages are providing mixed signals – confirming the indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1.2965, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3090 and 1.3170.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 16.08.2018

The USDCHF reversed around the recent highs at 0.9985 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) and has since been bearish. Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal support and resistance areas at 0.9870, 0.9900, 0.9980 and 0.9985.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

USDJPY - 16.08.2018

Just like other USD pairs, the USDJPY continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are moving sideways. Price could be rejected or reverse around the identified horizontal levels at 110.15, 110.40, 111.40 and 111.50.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 16.08.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bearish and has swung lower. GOLD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1192.75 and 1197.90. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the recent lows at 1165.70.