TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 15, 2018


NZDUSD - 15.08.2018

 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 15.08.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD was rejected at the shorter-term moving average and has since moved lower. Price has been bearish and is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal support at 0.7260.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

US retail sales figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1430 UTC. Australian employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 0130 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 15.08.2018

The EURGBP has been finding support around the horizontal level at 0.8910 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and are moving sideways. The EURGBP is ranging between the horizontal support at 0.8910 and the horizontal resistance at 0.8940. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could stall or reverse around the horizontal support at 0.8875.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A UK CPI figure will be released at 0830 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

EURUSD - 15.08.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the 23.6% Fib level and has since swung lower. The EURUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish, signalling that the downside momentum may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the identified trend resistance area, around the horizontal levels at 1.1365 and 1.1430 and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

US retail sales figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1430 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 15.08.2018

Price was bullish but reversed bearish around the longer-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD has since swung lower and continues to downtrend. The moving averages are bearish, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 1.2735, 1.2810, 1.2855 and 1.2895.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A UK CPI figure will be released at 0830 UTC today. US retail sales figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1430 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 15.08.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD found resistance around the 23.6% Fib level and has since moved lower. Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.6570 and 0.6605 and around the bearish moving averages.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

US retail sales figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1430 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 15.08.2018

The USDCAD has been bearish and has moved below the trend support area. Price is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1.2965, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3090 and 1.3165.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

US retail sales figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1430 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 15.08.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed off the horizontal level at 0.9900. The USDCHF continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.9870, 0.9900, 0.9970 and 0.9985.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

US retail sales figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1430 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

USDJPY - 15.08.2018

Price found support and reversed around the previous trend resistance area and the longer-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDJPY has been bullish but is looking a little indecisive. The moving averages are crossing bullish, signalling upside momentum. Buying opportunities may exist around the moving averages. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 111.50, 111.85 and 112.15.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

US retail sales figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1430 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 15.08.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD reversed around the 23.6% Fib level and has since been bearish. Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 1192.75, 1197.90, 1204.50 and 1207.15 and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.


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