TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 14, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 14.08.2018

Price is finding support. The AUDUSD continues to be under the recent consolidation and the moving averages are still bearish, suggesting that price could start down-trending. If price starts retracing, opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal support at 0.7350. The AUDUSD could continue to find support around 0.7260.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

An Australian wage index figure will be released at 0130 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 14.08.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price is moving sideways and is lacking trend momentum. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.8875, 0.8910 and 0.9020. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the EURGBP may move lower.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A UK averages earnings index figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

EURUSD - 14.08.2018

The EURUSD has been finding resistance around the 23.6% Fib level (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the bearish moving averages and around the previous swing low at 1.1535. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the recent swing low at 1.1365.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 14.08.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD has been finding support around the horizontal level at 1.2735. Price has been down-trending within a bearish channel and is currently in a retrace phase. The GBPUSD is attempting to move above the channel resistance area, signalling that downside momentum is weakening – price could attempt a bullish move. The moving averages continue to be bearish though, suggesting that the downtrend could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2855, 1.2925 and 1.2970. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support at 1.2735.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A UK averages earnings index figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 14.08.2018

Price continued to find support around 0.6570 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) and is now retracing some of the recent bearish move. The moving averages are bearish, signalling that the NZDUSD may attempt a bearish move lower. Opportunities to go short could exist around any of the key Fib levels and around the longer-term moving average. Price may continue to find support around 0.6570.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 14.08.2018

Just like other USD pairs, the USDCAD is retracing. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that price could attempt another bullish move. Buying opportunities may exist around the previous swing high at 1.3090, around the longer-term moving average and around the trend support area. A move to the upside could be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent swing high at 1.3165.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 14.08.2018

The USDCHF continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.9870, 0.9900, 0.9970 and 0.9985.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

USDJPY - 14.08.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY reversed around the trend resistance area and the longer-term moving average. Price has since been bullish. The USDJPY is now above the moving averages and the trend resistance area, signalling that the downtrend is over. Opportunities to go long may exist around the moving averages and around the previous trend resistance area (as support). A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 111.50 and 111.90.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 14.08.2018

Price closed below the horizontal channel support area and has since been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). GOLD is below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that price will now continue to downtrend. Selling opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal support levels at 1204.50 and 1207.15.