TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 13, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 13.08.2018

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has continued to be bearish. Price has formed a swing lower and is below the recent consolidation area, signalling that the AUDUSD may start down-trending. The moving averages confirm this – they are bearish and widening. Selling opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.7350 and 0.7375.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 13.08.2018

The EURGBP is moving off the previous resistance at 0.8910 (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The current retrace move has been strong and has almost reverse the recent bullish move, signalling that price could struggling to swing higher. The moving averages have crossed bearish and are moving sideways – confirming the lack of upside momentum. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.8875, 0.8910 and 0.9020 and around the moving averages.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

EURUSD - 13.08.2018

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has been bearish and has swung lower. The EURUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Opportunities to go short could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal support at 1.1535.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 13.08.2018

Price has been finding support around the bearish channel support area (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD continues to downtrend within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around the channel resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2855, 1.2925 and 1.2970. The GBPUSD could continue to find support around the channel support area and around the horizontal support at 1.2740.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 13.08.2018

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish and move lower. The NZDUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue. If price starts retracing, selling opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages. The NZDUSD may continue to find support around the horizontal support at 0.6570.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 13.08.2018

The USDCAD was rejected around the moving averages and the trend support area and has since been swung higher (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price action has formed a short series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that the USDCAD could start up-trending. Long opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1.3115 and 1.3090, around the moving averages and around the trend support area. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 1.3190.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 13.08.2018

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF reversed off the horizontal resistance at 0.9970. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.9870, 0.9900, 0.9970 and 0.9985.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

USDJPY - 13.08.2018

Price has been bearish and has swung lower (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The USDJPY is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish, signalling that the downside momentum could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the previous horizontal support at 110.65, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the trend resistance area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 13.08.2018

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, GOLD continues to reverse at the support and resistance areas of the range. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Price action has formed a clear horizontal channel at 1207.15-1216.50. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if GOLD closes out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support at 1204.50. A break to the upside may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 1218.50 and 1226.50.