TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 10, 2018

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been very bearish. The AUDUSD has swung below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are crossing bearish, suggesting that price could start down-trending. Opportunities to go short may exist around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.7350 and 0.7375 and around the bearish moving averages.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price is finding support around the 50.0% Fib level. The EURGBP continues to be above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish, signalling that price may attempt to swing higher. Buying opportunities could exist around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 0.8925 and 0.8910.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

UK GDP and manufacturing production figures will be announced at 0830 UTC today.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

The EURUSD has swung lower. Price action has formed a series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs – price is down-trending. The moving averages are about to cross bearish, signalling that the downtrend could continue. If the EURUSD starts retracing, shorting opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the previous swing low at 1.1535 and around the moving averages.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD reversed around the shorter-term moving average and around the channel resistance area. The GBPUSD is now being rejected at the channel support area (as also suggested). Price continues to be bearish and downtrend. The moving averages are bearish, signalling that the downside momentum may continue. Opportunities to go short could exist around the previous horizontal support at 1.2855, around the channel resistance area and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages. The GBPUSD may be rejected or reverse around the channel support area. A break to the upside of the channel may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.2920 and 1.2970.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

UK GDP and manufacturing production figures will be announced at 0830 UTC today. These are followed by US CPI figures at 1230 UTC today.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price has continued to be bearish and move lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The NZDUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price is being rejected at the range resistance area. The USDCAD continues to be indecisive and range between the horizontal support at 1.2965 and the horizontal resistance at 1.3090. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). Price action has formed a diagonal support area, signalling that the USDCAD may break to the upside. Buying opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the diagonal support. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.3115 and 1.3190.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. Canadian unemployment rate and employment change figures will be released at the same time.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCHF continues to be indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.9870, 0.9900, 0.9970 and 0.9985.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY has been reversing off the channel resistance area and the horizontal support at 110.65. Price continues to downtrend within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 111.50, 111.90 and 112.15. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal support at 110.65 and the channel support area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been reversing at the horizontal levels at 1207.15 and 1215.50 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). GOLD is indecisive and is ranging at the mentioned horizontal levels. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance levels of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around the recent lows at 1204.50. A break to the upside could find resistance around the horizontal levels at 1218.55 and 1226.50.

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