TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 09, 2018

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has been bullish and is forming a swing higher. The moving averages are still bullish and are steady, signalling that the bullish momentum may continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.7405 and 0.7390. A move higher may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 0.7460.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US PPI figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today. The RBA will release a monetary policy statement at 0130 UTC.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP continues to be bullish and has moved higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that the EURGBP could start up-trending. If price starts retracing, opportunities to go long may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the moving averages and around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.8955.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price was bearish and then reversed around the moving averages. The EURUSD is starting to look indecisive again. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 1.1535 and 1.1625. The moving averages are bullish, signalling that price may attempt a move higher.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A US PPI figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish and has swung lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD is down-trending. Price action has formed a bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish, all suggesting that the downside momentum could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the channel resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2925 and 1.2970. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal support at 1.2855 and the channel support area.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US PPI figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD moved below the horizontal channel support area and has since been bearish. Price is below the recent consolidation area and price action has formed a series of lower lows and highs – the NZDUSD is down-trending. Opportunities to go short could exist around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.6715 and 0.6720, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the trend resistance area.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US PPI figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCAD has been bearish. Price is looking indecisive again. The moving averages confirm this – they are tight and are moving sideways. The USDCAD is ranging between the horizontal support at 1.2965 and the horizontal resistance at 1.3095. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.3115 and 1.3190.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US PPI figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been finding support around the horizontal level at 0.9925 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCHF continues to look indecisive and lack trend direction. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.9870, 0.9905, 0.9925 and 0.9985. Price action has formed a bearish channel and the moving averages have crossed bearish, signalling that the USDCHF may move lower. Opportunities to go short could exist around the moving averages and around the channel resistance area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

A US PPI figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found support around the horizontal support at 110.80. The USDJPY has formed a bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish, signalling that price could move lower. Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 111.50 and 111.90. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support at 110.65 and the channel support area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

A US PPI figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the downside momentum is currently over – GOLD is moving sideways and has become indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the identified diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 1204.50, 1207.15, 1215.50, 1218.50 and 1226.50.

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