TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 08, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 08.08.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the horizontal resistance at 0.7440. The AUDUSD has been choppy and indecisive but recent price action has been bullish. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the trend support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.7405 and 0.7375. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.7440 and 0.7460.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US crude oil inventories figure will be announced at 1430 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 08.08.2018

Price has been bullish and is forming a swing higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP is above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that price may start up-trending. Long opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 0.8955 and 0.8925 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

EURUSD - 08.08.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has reversed around the horizontal level at 1.1625. Price was recently bearish and is now in a retrace phase. Opportunities to go short may exist around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels and around the horizontal level at 1.1625. The moving averages are tightening and could cross bullish, signalling that the EURUSD could fail to swing lower. A bearish move could reverse around the moving averages and around the recent swing low at 1.1535.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A US crude oil inventories figure will be announced at 1430 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 08.08.2018

The GBPUSD has been reversing around the shorter-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price has been down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal support levels at 1.2960, 1.3070 and 1.3080, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the trend resistance area.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US crude oil inventories figure will be announced at 1430 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 08.08.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the longer-term moving average. The NZDUSD has since become indecisive again. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between the horizontal levels at 0.6720 and 0.6760. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the NZDUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break out of the range could be rejected or reverse around the identified horizontal levels at 0.6715 and 0.6765.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 2.00% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – there is some economic uncertainty caused by New Zealand’s GDP and CPI figures. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US crude oil inventories figure will be announced at 1430 UTC today. The RBNZ will announce the official rate and release a monetary policy statement and a rate statement at 2100 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 2200 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 08.08.2018

Price broke to the downside of the horizontal channel but has since been bullish. The USDCAD is above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages have crossed bullish, all suggesting that price may start up-trending. Buying opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal channel resistance at 1.3035 and around the bullish moving averages. A move higher may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.3080 and 1.3120.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US crude oil inventories figure will be announced at 1430 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 08.08.2018

The USDCHF has been bearish and has become indecisive again. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.9870, 0.9905, 0.9925 and 0.9985.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

A US crude oil inventories figure will be announced at 1430 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

USDJPY - 08.08.2018

Just like the USDCHF, the USDJPY has been bearish and indecisive. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 110.65, 110.80, 111.50, 111.90 and 112.15.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

A US crude oil inventories figure will be announced at 1430 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 08.08.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been reversing off the trend resistance area. GOLD has been down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish, signalling that the downtrend could continue but price action has formed a symmetrical triangle, suggesting market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the symmetrical triangle pattern and if GOLD closes out of the pattern (break-out trade). A break to the downside could stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 1207.15 and 1204.50. A break to the upside could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 1218.55 and 1226.50.