TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 03, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 03.08.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has been finding support around the horizontal level at 0.7360. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently. The AUDUSD could stall or reverse around the identified horizontal levels at 0.7325, 0.7360, 0.7440 and 0.7460.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

US non-farm payrolls, average hourly earnings and unemployment rate figures will all be released at 1230 UTC today. These are followed by a US non-manufacturing PMI figure at 1400 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 03.08.2018

The EURGBP has been rejected at the horizontal levels at 0.8875 and 0.8925 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. The EURGBP is ranging between the horizontal levels at 0.8875 and 0.8925. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 0.8955. A break to the downside could stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.8855 and 0.8820.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A UK services PMI figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

EURUSD - 03.08.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support around the horizontal level at 1.1585. The EURUSD has been bearish and is attempting to move below the recent consolidation area. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that price may move lower. Selling opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal support at 1.1625 and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

US non-farm payrolls, average hourly earnings and unemployment rate figures will all be released at 1230 UTC today. These are followed by a US non-manufacturing PMI figure at 1400 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 03.08.2018

Price has been bearish. The GBPUSD is below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all suggesting that price could start down-trending. Shorting opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal support levels at 1.3070 and 1.3085, around the bearish moving averages and around the trend resistance area.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A UK services PMI figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today. US non-farm payrolls, average hourly earnings and unemployment rate figures will all be released at 1230 UTC. These are followed by a US non-manufacturing PMI figure at 1400 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 03.08.2018

Just like other USD pairs, the NZDUSD has been bearish. Price is still lacking trend momentum though and is still within the consolidation area. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.6715 and 0.6765.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 2.00% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – there is some economic uncertainty caused by New Zealand’s GDP and CPI figures. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

US non-farm payrolls, average hourly earnings and unemployment rate figures will all be released at 1230 UTC today. These are followed by a US non-manufacturing PMI figure at 1400 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 03.08.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD has been finding resistance around the longer-term moving average. Price has become a little choppy and indecisive. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the indecision. The USDCAD is ranging between the horizontal support at 1.2980 and the horizontal resistance at 1.3080. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.3115 and 1.3190.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

US non-farm payrolls, average hourly earnings and unemployment rate figures will all be released at 1230 UTC today. A Canadian trade balance figure will be released at the same time. This is all followed by a US non-manufacturing PMI figure at 1400 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 03.08.2018

Price reversed around the longer-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCHF is indecisive. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 0.9870 and the horizontal resistance at 0.9975. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCHF moves out of the range (break-out trade). The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

US non-farm payrolls, average hourly earnings and unemployment rate figures will all be released at 1230 UTC today. These are followed by a US non-manufacturing PMI figure at 1400 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

USDJPY - 03.08.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the longer-term moving average. The USDJPY is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 110.65, 110.80, 111.25, 111.40, 112.15, 112.20 and 113.10.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

US non-farm payrolls, average hourly earnings and unemployment rate figures will all be released at 1230 UTC today. These are followed by a US non-manufacturing PMI figure at 1400 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 03.08.2018

GOLD closed below the range support area and has since been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that price may start down-trending. Opportunities to go short could exist around the previous horizontal support levels at 1214.10 and 1218.35, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the trend resistance area.