TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 30, 2018

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. The AUDUSD may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.7325, 0.7360, 0.7370, 0.7430, 0.7440, 0.7460 and 0.7480.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has been finding resistance around the horizontal resistance at 0.8895. The EURGBP continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.8820, 0.8860, 0.8875, 0.8895 and 0.8955.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% and plan to increase rates again in the very near future. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

The EURUSD has reversed around the horizontal level at 1.1625 (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price continues to look indecisive but price action has formed a lower swing low and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that the EURUSD could move lower. Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 1.1675 and 1.1745. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 1.1625 and 1.1585.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Just like other USD pairs, the GBPUSD continues to lack trend direction and move sideways. The moving averages confirm this – they are also moving sideways and have been crossing frequently. Price could stall or reverse around the identified horizontal levels at 1.2960, 1.3070, 1.3155, 1.3205 and 1.3290.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% and plan to increase rates again in the very near future. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the indecision. Buying opportunities may exist around the horizontal support levels at 0.6715, 0.6725 and 0.6760. Selling opportunities may exist around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.6820, 0.6850 and 0.6855.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 2.00% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – there is some economic uncertainty caused by New Zealand’s GDP and CPI figures. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A ANZ business confidence figure will be announced at 0100 UTC.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has been finding resistance around the previous horizontal support at 1.3075. The USDCAD is currently down-trending and is in a retrace phase. The moving averages are still bearish, signalling that price attempt to swing lower. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal support levels at 1.3075 and 1.3110. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the recent swing low at 1.3025.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCHF reversed around the previous support at 0.9975 (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price continues to look choppy but move within a bearish channel. The moving averages have become bullish and are widening, signalling that the USDCHF could become bullish. Opportunities to go short may exist around the horizontal level at 0.9975 and around the bearish channel resistance area. If price closes above the channel resistance area, the USDCHF could attempt a bullish move. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around the horizontal support at 0.9900.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

The USDJPY continues to lack trend momentum and be indecisive. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the indecision. Price is ranging between the horizontal levels at 110.65 and 111.50. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDJPY moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 112.20 and 113.10.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

The Bank of Japan will announce the official interest rate and release an outlook report and monetary policy statement sometime tomorrow morning (UTC).

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price found support around the range support area. GOLD continues to be indecisive and range between the horizontal levels at 1218.50 and 1234.25. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could stall or reverse around the previous trend resistance area and around the recent lows at 1214.10. A break to the upside could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1238.00, 1245.10 and 1248.70.

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