TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 27, 2018

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The AUDUSD has been bearish. Price has become indecisive again. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.7325, 0.7360, 0.7430, 0.7440, 0.7460 and 0.7480.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US advance GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

Just like the AUDUSD, the EURGBP has become indecisive and is lacking trend momentum. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.8810, 0.8820, 0.8860, 0.8895 and 0.8955.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% and plan to increase rates again in the very near future. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the horizontal level at 1.1745. The EURUSD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 1.1585, 1.1625, 1.1655, 1.1675, 1.1745, 1.1760 and 1.1785.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A US advance GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish. The GBPUSD has moved below the trend support area and is currently moving sideways. The moving averages are also moving sideways, signalling market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around moving averages, around the previous trend support area (as resistance) and around the identified horizontal levels at 1.2960, 1.3070, 1.3155, 1.3205, 1.3290 and 1.3350.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% and plan to increase rates again in the very near future. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US advance GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Just like other USD pairs, the NZDUSD has been bearish and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages confirm market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.6715, 0.6725, 0.6770, 0.6820, 0.6850 and 0.6855.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 2.00% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – there is some economic uncertainty caused by New Zealand’s GDP and CPI figures. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US advance GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD has reversed around the 38.2% Fib level and the previous support at 1.3075. Price is currently down-trending and is in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the USDCAD could attempt to swing lower. Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal support levels at 1.3075 and 1.3110. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the recent swing low at 1.3025.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US advance GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been moving off the range support and resistance areas (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) and continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. The USDCHF continues to range and has formed a horizontal channel at 0.9900-0.9500. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside may be rejected or reverse around the previous horizontal support at 0.9975 and around the bearish channel resistance area. A break to the downside may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support at 0.9865 and the bearish channel support area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

A US advance GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

Price is looking choppy and is indecisive. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 110.35, 110.65, 111.50, 112.20 and 113.10.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

A US advance GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has bounced-off the previous trend resistance area. GOLD is indecisive and is ranging between the horizontal support at 1219.00 and the horizontal resistance at 1234.25. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may stall or reverse around the previous trend resistance area and around the recent lows at 1214.10. A break to the upside may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1238.00, 1245.10 and 1248.70.

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