TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 26, 2018

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price was rejected around the horizontal level at 0.7435. The AUDUSD has since been bullish though and has swung above key resistance levels. The moving averages are bullish and are widening and price action has formed higher swing highs and higher swing lows, all signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the previous resistance levels at 0.7430, 0.7435 and 0.7440, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the potential bullish channel support area. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 0.7480 and the channel resistance area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US durable goods orders figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

Price is currently moving sideways and is ranging between the horizontal levels at 0.8875 and 0.8895. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the EURGBP moves out of the range. The moving averages are bearish, suggesting that price may move to the downside. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.8865, 0.8820 and 0.8815.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% and plan to increase rates again in the very near future. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

The ECB will announce the official interest rate at 1145 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1230 UTC.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has been finding resistance around the horizontal level at 1.1745. Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities may exist around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1585, 1.1625, 1.1655, 1.1675, 1.1745, 1.1760 and 1.1785.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

The ECB will announce the official interest rate at 1145 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1230 UTC. A US durable goods orders figure will be released at the same time as the press conference.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The GBPUSD closed above the range resistance area and has since been bullish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price action has formed a short series of higher highs and higher lows – the GBPUSD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Long opportunities could exist around the trend support area, around the horizontal levels at 1.3155 and 1.3070 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. A bullish move higher may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.3290 and 1.3350.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% and plan to increase rates again in the very near future. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US durable goods orders figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price was rejected around the horizontal resistance at 0.6820. The NZDUSD has since been bullish. Price action has formed a diagonal support area and the moving averages are bullish and are starting to widen, signalling that the NZDUSD could attempt a move higher. Opportunities to go long may exist around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.6820, around the trend support area and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. The NZDUSD could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 0.6855.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 2.00% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – there is some economic uncertainty caused by New Zealand’s GDP and CPI figures. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US durable goods orders figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish. The USDCAD is below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish, signalling that price may start down-trending. Selling opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal support levels at 1.3075 and 1.3110, around any of the key Fib levels and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages. Price may continue to find support around the recent lows at 1.3030.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US durable goods orders figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF reversed around the longer-term moving average. Price continues to be move within a bearish channel but is currently ranging between the horizontal levels at 0.9900 and 0.9950. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCHF moves out of the range (break-out trade). Trading opportunities may also exist around the moving averages, around the bearish channel support and resistance and around the horizontal levels at 0.9865 and 0.9975.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

A US durable goods orders figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

The USDJPY has been bearish and is forming a swing lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish, suggesting that the downtrend may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the previous swing low at 110.85, around the bearish moving averages and around the previous swing high at 111.50. A move lower may find support around the recent lows at 110.30.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

A US durable goods orders figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the downtrend is currently over – price action has formed a higher swing low and is moving sideways. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways, signalling indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the newly formed diagonal support area, around the previous trend resistance area (as support) and around the horizontal levels at 1214.10, 1219.10, 1234.25, 1238.00 and 1245.10.

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