TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 17, 2018


USDJPY - 17.07.2018

 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 17.07.2018

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 0.7310, 0.7360, 0.7375, 0.7440 and 0.7480 and around the diagonal support area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

The Fed Chair will testify at 1400 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 17.07.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the range support area. The EURGBP continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Price continues to range between the horizontal levels at 0.8820 and 0.8865. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the EURGBP moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.8815 and 0.8800. A break to the upside may stall or reverse around the recent highs at 0.8885 and 0.8900.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% and plan to increase rates again in the very near future. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

The Governor of the BOE will speak at 0800 UTC today. This is followed by an average earnings index figure at 0830 UTC.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

EURUSD - 17.07.2018

The EURUSD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 1.1600, 1.1620, 1.1700, 1.1760 and 1.1785.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

US retail sales figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today. The Fed Chair will testify at 1400 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 17.07.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD has reversed around the horizontal resistance at 1.3290 and the longer-term moving average. Just like other USD pairs, the GBPUSD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the lack of trend direction – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3050, 1.3105, 1.3125, 1.3190, 1.3290 and 1.3350.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% and plan to increase rates again in the very near future. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

The Governor of the BOE will speak at 0800 UTC today. This is followed by an average earnings index figure at 0830 UTC. The Fed Chair will testify at 1400 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 17.07.2018

Price found resistance around the horizontal level at 0.6790 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) but has since swung higher. The NZDUSD has been bullish but continues to look indecisive. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.6690, 0.6725, 0.6790 and 0.6855 and around the moving averages.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 2.00% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – there is some economic uncertainty caused by New Zealand’s GDP and CPI figures. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

The Fed Chair will testify at 1400 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 17.07.2018

Just like other USD pairs, the USDCAD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the lack of trend momentum. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 1.3075 and the horizontal resistance at 1.3220. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCAD closes out of the range (break-out trade).

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

The Fed Chair will testify at 1400 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 17.07.2018

The USDCHF has been bearish. Price is retracing some of the recent bullish swing. The moving averages are bullish, suggesting that the USDCHF could attempt a bullish move. Buying opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 0.9945, 0.9900 and 0.9865 and around the 61.8% Fib level. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the moving averages.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

The Fed Chair will testify at 1400 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

USDJPY - 17.07.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY has continued to find support around the 23.6% Fib level. Price has been up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish, signalling that the USDJPY may attempt to swing higher. Opportunities to go long could exist around the longer-term moving average, around any of the key Fib levels and around the trend support area. An attempt to swing higher may be rejected or fail around the recent swing high at 112.80.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

The Fed Chair will testify at 1400 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 17.07.2018

Price has found support around the horizontal support at 1237.95 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). GOLD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1237.95, 1245.10, 1248.70 and 1265.10. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that GOLD could move lower. Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.


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