TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 16, 2018
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The AUDUSD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the diagonal support area and around the identified horizontal levels at 0.7310, 0.7360, 0.7375, 0.7420 and 0.7480.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.
US retail sales figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today. Australian monetary policy meeting minutes will be released at 0130 UTC.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP has been reversing at the identified horizontal levels. Price continues to be indecisive. The EURGBP is ranging between the horizontal support at 0.8820 and the horizontal resistance at 0.8860. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.8815 and 0.8800. A break to the upside could stall or reverse around the recent highs at 0.8885 and 0.8900.
Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% and plan to increase rates again in the very near future. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been bullish but is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 1.1600, 1.1620, 1.1700, 1.1760 and 1.1785.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.
US retail sales figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price found support around the horizontal support at 1.3105. The GBPUSD has since been bullish and is now looking indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3050, 1.3105, 1.3125, 1.3190, 1.3290 and 1.3350.
Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% and plan to increase rates again in the very near future. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.
US retail sales figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Just like other USD pairs, the NZDUSD has become indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.6690, 0.6725, 0.6790 and 0.6855.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 2.00% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – there is some economic uncertainty caused by New Zealand’s GDP and CPI figures. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.
US retail sales figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today. A CPI figure for New Zealand will be released at 2245 UTC.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCAD is lacking trend direction. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 1.3075 and the horizontal resistance at 1.3220. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCAD closes out of the range (break-out trade).
The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.
US retail sales figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price was rejected around the moving averages and around the identified previous resistance levels. The USDCHF is above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that price may start up-trending. Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous resistance levels at 0.9985, 0.9965 and 0.9945. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 1.0070.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.
US retail sales figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
Price has found support around the 23.6% Fib level (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The USDJPY is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the trend support area. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 112.80.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.
US retail sales figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, GOLD reversed around the horizontal support at 1238.30. Price continues to look a little indecisive. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 1237.95, 1241.40, 1248.70 and 1265.10. The moving averages are bearish, signalling that GOLD may attempt a bearish move lower.
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