TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 11, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 11.07.2018

Price has been bearish. The AUDUSD has moved below the bullish channel support area and the moving averages are starting to tighten, suggesting that the uptrend could be over. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the previous channel support area (as resistance) and around the horizontal levels at 0.7310, 0.7365 and 0.7480.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US crude oil inventories figure will be announced at 1430 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 11.07.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the trend support area. The EURGBP is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the trend support area and around the horizontal support levels at 0.8815 and 0.8800. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the moving averages and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.8865 and 0.8900.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% and plan to increase rates again in the very near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

The President of the ECB will speak at 0700 UTC today. The Governor of the Bank of England will speak at 1535 UTC.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

EURUSD - 11.07.2018

The EURUSD has found support around the horizontal level at 1.1690 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price has been up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. Long opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 1.1715 and 1.1690, around the longer-term moving average and around the trend support area. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways, signalling that buying momentum is weakening. The EURUSD could attempt a bearish move.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

The President of the ECB will speak at 0700 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 11.07.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD found resistance around the horizontal level at 1.3290. Price is looking indecisive. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1.3050, 1.3105, 1.3195, 1.3290, 1.3310 and 1.3350.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% and plan to increase rates again in the very near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US crude oil inventories figure will be announced at 1430 UTC today. The Governor of the Bank of England will speak at 1535 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 11.07.2018

Price has been bearish and is retracing some of the recent bullish move. The NZDUSD is looking a little indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.6690, 0.6740, 0.6790, 0.6830, 0.6855 and 0.6920.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 2.00% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – there is some economic uncertainty caused by New Zealand’s GDP and CPI figures. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US crude oil inventories figure will be announced at 1430 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 11.07.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the horizontal resistance at 1.3160. The USDCAD is moving sideways and has become indecisive. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price action is forming a horizontal channel at 1.3075 and 1.3160. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if the USDCAD moves out of the channel (break-out trade).

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

The BOC will release a monetary policy report, a rate statement and announce the official rate at 1400 UTC today. A US crude oil inventories figure will be announced at 1430 UTC. A BOC press conference is scheduled for 1515 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 11.07.2018

The USDCHF reversed around the horizontal resistance at 0.9960 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.9840, 0.9865, 0.9900, 0.9945, 0.9960 and 0.9985.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

A US crude oil inventories figure will be announced at 1430 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

USDJPY - 11.07.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY found support around the moving averages and previous resistance at 110.75. Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 111.05, 110.75 and 110.30. The USDJPY may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 111.30.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

A US crude oil inventories figure will be announced at 1430 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 11.07.2018

Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the lack of trend direction – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 1238.30, 1248.70, 1265.10, 1271.80 and 1276.45.