TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 10, 2018

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD reversed around the bullish channel resistance area. Price is up-trending within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 0.7440 and 0.7420 and around the channel support area. The AUDUSD may find resistance around the recent swing high at 0.7480 and around the channel resistance area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP closed above the range resistance area and then moved higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish, signalling that the EURGBP could move higher. Long opportunities may exist around the previous resistance at 0.8865, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the trend support area. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 0.8900.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% and plan to increase rates again in the very near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

UK GDP and manufacturing production figures will be released at 0830 UTC today.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found support around the shorter-term moving average. The USDJPY continues to uptrend and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside momentum may continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the trend support area, around the longer-term moving average and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1.1720 and 1.1690. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 1.1785.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish. The GBPUSD is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are starting to move sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3050, 1.3105, 1.3195, 1.3265, 1.3290, 1.3310 and 1.3350.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% and plan to increase rates again in the very near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

UK GDP and manufacturing production figures will be released at 0830 UTC today.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD has been finding support around the horizontal level at 0.6830 and around the shorter-term moving average. Price is currently ranging between 0.6825 and 0.6855. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the NZDUSD closes out of the range (break-out trade). The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that price may continue to uptrend. Buying opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal level at 0.6790.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 2.00% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – there is some economic uncertainty caused by New Zealand’s GDP and CPI figures. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCAD has been bullish. Price is above the moving averages and the trend resistance area, suggesting that the recent downtrend could now be over. The USDCAD is looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 1.3075, 1.3160 and 1.3220, around the previous trend resistance area (as support) and around the moving averages.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price was bearish and swung lower. The USDCHF has since been bullish and is now looking indecisive. The moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.9840, 0.9865, 0.9900, 0.9945, 0.9960 and 0.9985.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

Price has been bullish and has swung higher. The USDJPY has formed a series of higher highs and higher lows, suggesting that the upside direction could continue. Long opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 111.05 and 110.75, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the trend support area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GOLD has been bearish and has swung below the moving averages and the trend support area. Price is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – the are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 1238.30, 1251.70, 1260.70, 1265.10, 1271.80 and 1276.45.

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