TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 06, 2018

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The AUDUSD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.7310, 0.7365, 0.7420 and 0.7440. If price moves above the horizontal resistance at 0.7440, the AUDUSD may attempt a bullish move higher.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. A US unemployment rate figure will be released at the same time.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP has reversed around the horizontal resistance at 0.8860. Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 0.8800, 0.8860 and 0.8885.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% and plan to increase rates again in the very near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news events today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

Price has been bullish and has moved higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the upside momentum may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.1690, around the trend support area, around the diagonal support of the moving averages and around the horizontal support at 1.1600. The EURUSD may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 1.1720.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. A US unemployment rate figure will be released at the same time.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has found support around the channel support area and the previous swing high at 1.3205. The GBPUSD continues to uptrend within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the channel support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3205 and 1.3105. A move higher could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.3265, 1.3290 and 1.3310 and around the channel resistance area.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% and plan to increase rates again in the very near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. A US unemployment rate figure will be released at the same time.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The NZDUSD has been bullish and has completed the inverted head and shoulder pattern (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price action is forming a higher swing high and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that the NZDUSD may start up-trending. Long opportunities could exist around the previous resistance at 0.6790, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal support levels at 0.6740 and 0.6690. A bullish move may find resistance around the horizontal levels at 0.6830 and 0.6920.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 2.00% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – there is some economic uncertainty caused by New Zealand’s GDP and CPI figures. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. A US unemployment rate figure will be released at the same time.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD has been finding support around the horizontal support at 1.3120. Price action has formed a tight horizontal channel at 1.3120-1.3155. The moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the USDCAD closes out of the channel (break-out trade). If price breaks to the downside, the USDCAD could continue to downtrend. A break to the upside could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.3220 and 1.3265.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. A US unemployment rate figure and Canadian employment and trade balance figures will be released at the same time.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.9825, 0.9840, 0.9895, 0.9905, 0.9945, 0.9960 and 0.9985.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. A US unemployment rate figure will be released at the same time.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 109.40, 110.20, 110.25 and 111.05.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. A US unemployment rate figure will be released at the same time.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GOLD has become indecisive and is moving sideways. Price is ranging between the horizontal levels at 1251.70 and 1260.70. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if GOLD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside, could stall or reverse around the previous channel resistance area and around the recent lows at 1238.30. A break to the upside could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 1262.50, 1271.80, 1276.45 and 1283.95.

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