TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 05, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 05.07.2018

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.7310, 0.7420 and 0.7445.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by a US non-manufacturing PMI figure at 1400 UTC and US crude oil inventories at 1500 UTC. FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1800 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP -05.07.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the horizontal level at 0.8800. The EURGBP continues to look a little choppy and indecisive. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.8800, 0.8860 and 0.8885. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that price may attempt a bearish move. Selling opportunities could exist around the identified bearish channel resistance area. The EURGBP may find support around the channel support area.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% and plan to increase rates again in the very near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

The Governor of the Bank of England will speak at 1000 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

EURUSD - 05.07.2018

The EURUSD found support around the loner-term moving average and has since been bullish. The moving averages are bullish and price action has formed a short series of higher swing lows, all suggesting that price could start up-trending. Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1685 and 1.1600. The EURUSD could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.1715 and 1.1825.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by a US non-manufacturing PMI figure at 1400 UTC and US crude oil inventories at 1500 UTC. FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1800 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 05.07.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD has been bullish and has moved higher. Price action has formed a potential bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish and steady, all signalling that the GBPUSD may start up-trending. Long opportunities could exist around the previous swing high at 1.3205, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the channel support area. A swing higher may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.3290 and 1.3310 and around the channel resistance area.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% and plan to increase rates again in the very near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

The Governor of the Bank of England will speak at 1000 UTC today. A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1215 UTC. This is followed by a US non-manufacturing PMI figure at 1400 UTC and US crude oil inventories at 1500 UTC. FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1800 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 05.07.2018

Price has found support around the moving averages (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price action is forming an inverted head and shoulder reversal pattern and the moving averages have crossed bullish, all signalling that the NZDSD could move higher. Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal support levels at 0.6740 and 0.6690. A move to the upside could find resistance around the horizontal levels at 0.6790, 0.6825 and 0.6920.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 2.00% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – there is some economic uncertainty caused by New Zealand’s GDP and CPI figures. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by a US non-manufacturing PMI figure at 1400 UTC and US crude oil inventories at 1500 UTC. FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1800 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 05.07.2018

Price has been down-trending and is currently in a sideways retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downtrend may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the recent swing high at 1.3220 and if the USDCAD closes below the support at 1.3120. Price may find support around the support at 1.3120.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by a US non-manufacturing PMI figure at 1400 UTC and US crude oil inventories at 1500 UTC. FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1800 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 05.07.2018

The USDCHF continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 0.9825, 0.9840, 0.9895, 0.9905, 0.9940, 0.9960 and 0.9985.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by a US non-manufacturing PMI figure at 1400 UTC and US crude oil inventories at 1500 UTC. FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1800 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

USDJPY - 05.07.2018

The USDJPY continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 109.40, 110.20, 110.25, 110.70 and 111.05.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by a US non-manufacturing PMI figure at 1400 UTC and US crude oil inventories at 1500 UTC. FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1800 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 05.07.2018

Price is still above the recent bearish channel, suggesting that the downtrend is now over. The moving averages have just crossed bullish, signalling that GOLD could move higher. Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous bearish channel support area. A move higher could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1260.70, 1262.50, 1271.75 and 1276.45.