TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 04, 2018

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The AUDUSD has moved out of the bearish channel and has become indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price is ranging between the recent low at 0.7310 and the horizontal resistance at 0.7440. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the AUDUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There are no major scheduled news events today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP has become indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.8720, 0.8725, 0.8795, 0.8825, 0.8860 and 0.8885.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% and plan to increase rates again in the very near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A UK services PMI figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

Price continues to lack trend direction and be indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.1515, 1.1540, 1.1600, 1.1690, 1.1715 and 1.1735.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There are no major scheduled news events today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found resistance around the horizontal level at 1.3205. The GBPUSD has since been bullish and has swung above the resistance area. Price action has formed a higher swing low and the moving averages are bullish, signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the horizontal levels at 1.3205 and 1.3105, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the identified trend support area. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.3290, 1.3310 and 1.3325.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% and plan to increase rates again in the very near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A UK services PMI figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The NZDUSD has been down-trending. Price is currently in a retrace phase. The NZDUSD is above the moving averages and could be forming an inverted head and shoulder pattern, all suggesting that the downtrend may be over. Buying opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6740 and 0.6690. A move to the upside may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.6790, 0.6825 and 0.6920.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 2.00% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – there is some economic uncertainty caused by New Zealand’s GDP and CPI figures. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There are no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD has been bearish and is forming a swing lower. Price action has formed a potential bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish and steady, all signalling that the USDCAD could start down-trending. Selling opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 1.3135 and 1.3220, around the channel resistance area and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the channel support area and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.3040.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There are no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.9825, 0.9840, 0.9895, 0.9960 and 0.9985.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

There are no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

Price has been bearish and is now looking indecisive again. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 109.40, 110.20, 110.65 and 111.05.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

There are no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GOLD has been bullish. Price is above the channel resistance area and the moving averages are about to cross bullish, all suggesting that the recent downtrend is now over. Long opportunities could exist around the previous swing high at 1255.20, around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous channel resistance area (as support) and around the lows at 1238.30. An attempt to swing higher may find resistance around the horizontal levels at 1262.50, 1271.80 and 1276.45.

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