TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 03, 2018


USDCAD - 03.07.2018

 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 03.07.2018

Price has been bearish. The AUDUSD is below the recent consolidation area and price action has formed a bearish channel, all suggesting that price could move lower. The moving averages are bullish though and are moving sideways, suggesting indecision. Selling opportunities may exist around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.7405 and 0.7445. A move to the downside could stall or reverse around the recent swing low at 0.7310 and the channel support area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

Australian trade balance and retail sales figures will be released at 0130 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 03.07.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed off the longer-term moving average. The EURGBP has been up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8795, 0.8825 and 0.8835. The moving averages are starting to tighten and move sideways, signalling market indecision. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent high at 0.8885.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% and plan to increase rates again in the very near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A UK construction PMI figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

EURUSD - 03.07.2018

The EURUSD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 1.1515, 1.1540, 1.1600, 1.1690, 1.1715 and 1.1735.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 03.07.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD has been bearish but has filed to swing lower. Price is now lacking trend direction and is looking indecisive. The moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 1.3055, 1.3205, 1.3290, 1.3310 and 1.3325.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% and plan to increase rates again in the very near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A UK construction PMI figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 03.07.2018

Price has been bearish and continues to downtrend (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside momentum could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6740, 0.6790 and 0.6825. The NZDUSD could continue to find support around the recent low at 0.6690.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 2.00% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – there is some economic uncertainty caused by New Zealand’s GDP and CPI figures. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 03.07.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the 38.2% Fib level. The USDCAD is still below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that price may start down-trending. Opportunities to go short could exist the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal support at 1.3265. An attempt to swing lower may find support around 1.3135.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 03.07.2018

The USDCHF continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 0.9825, 0.9840, 0.9895 and 0.9985.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

USDJPY - 03.07.2018

As identified in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY has been rejected at the 111.00 horizontal resistance. Price is bullish. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside momentum may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the horizontal levels at 110.65, 110.50 and 110.00 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 03.07.2018

Price has continued to find support around the channel support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). GOLD continues to downtrend within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that price could continue to move lower. Opportunities to go short may exist around the horizontal levels at 1246.85 and 1255.20, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the channel resistance area. GOLD could continue to find support around the channel support area.


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