TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 02, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 02.07.2018

The AUDUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 0.7330 and the horizontal resistance at 0.7440. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and and if the AUDUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today. The RBA will announce the official rate and a release a rate statement at 0430 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 02.07.2018

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP was finding support around the shorter-term moving average. Price continues to uptrend but has moved below the shorter-term moving average and continues to be in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the EURGBP could swing higher. Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8830, 0.8825 and 0.8795.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% and plan to increase rates again in the very near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A UK manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

EURUSD - 02.07.2018

Price continues to lack trend momentum. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1.1515, 1.1540, 1.1720, 1.1735 and 1.1835 and around the moving averages.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 02.07.2018

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD has reversed around the 61.8% Fib level. Price has been down-trending. The GBPUSD is above the moving averages though and the moving averages are tightening, all signalling that price could struggle to swing lower. Opportunities to go short may exist around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels and around the horizontal level at 1.3225. A bearish move could find support around the moving averages and around the recent swing low at 1.3055.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% and plan to increase rates again in the very near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A UK manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today. This is followed by a US manufacturing PMI figure at 1400 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 02.07.2018

Price initially found resistance around the shorter-term moving average (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The NZDUSD continues to downtrend. Price is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downtrend may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the previous swing low at 0.6825. The NZDUSD may stall or reverse around the recent swing low at 0.6740.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 2.00% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – there is some economic uncertainty caused by New Zealand’s GDP and CPI figures. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 02.07.2018

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has been bearish and has moved lower. The USDCAD is below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that the downside momentum could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal support at 1.3260. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.3130, 1.3035 and 1.2955.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 02.07.2018

Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.9825, 0.9840, 0.9895 and 0.9985.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

USDJPY - 02.07.2018

The USDJPY has been bullish but continues to look indecisive. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that price could move higher. Long opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 110.70, 110.50 and 110.20 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 02.07.2018

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, GOLD found support around the bearish channel support area and has also reversed around the longer-term moving average. Price continues to downtrend within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downtrend may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1255.60 and 1262.50. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the recent lows at 1246.80 and around the channel support area.