TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 29, 2018

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish and is retracing some of the recent bearish move. The moving averages are moving sideways, suggesting market indecision. The AUDUSD is ranging between the recent low at 0.7330 and the recent swing high at 0.7445. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price closed above the resistance area at 0.8830 and has since moved higher. The EURGBP is above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish, all signalling that price may start up-trending. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8830 and 0.8800.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% and plan to increase rates again in the very near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A UK current account figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

The EURUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1.1515, 1.1540, 1.1715, 1.1735 and 1.1835.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD is finding resistance around the shorter-term moving average. Price is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% and plan to increase rates again in the very near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A UK current account figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price has continued to be bearish and swing lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The NZDUSD is down-trending and its currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the previous swing low at 0.6825 and around the trend resistance area.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 2.00% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – there is some economic uncertainty caused by New Zealand’s GDP and CPI figures. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish. The USDCAD is below some key support levels and the moving averages are crossing bearish, all suggesting that price may move lower. Opportunities to go short could exist around the previous support at 1.3265, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal resistance at 1.3365. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.3200 and 1.3260.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A Canadian GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a BOC business outlook survey at 1430 UTC.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF has reversed around the horizontal level at 0.9985. Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the lack of trend momentum. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.9825, 0.9840, 0.9915 and 0.9985.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

The USDJPY continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 109.25, 109.40, 110.50, 110.75 and 110.90.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price continues to be bearish and downtrend. GOLD is down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the bearish moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the previous swing low at 1262.75. A move lower could be rejected or reverse around the channel support area.

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