TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 20, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 20.06.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has started retracing and has been bullish. The AUDUSD has been down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.7480 and 0.7525. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the recent swing low at 0.7360.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

The Governor of the RBA and the Chair of the Fed will speak at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a US crude oil inventories figure at 1430 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 20.06.2018

Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are currently moving sideways – confirming the indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8720, 0.8760, 0.8780, 0.8825 and 0.8830.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. There are hints that the Bank of England (BOE) will hike the interest rate again in the near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

The President of the ECB will speak at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a US crude oil inventories figure at 1430 UTC.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

EURUSD - 20.06.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD was bearish and has swung lower. Price is now looking a little indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and are moving sideways. The EURUSD is ranging between the horizontal support at 1.1540 and the horizontal resistance at 1.1640. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

The President of the ECB and the Chair of the Fed will speak at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a US crude oil inventories figure at 1430 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 20.06.2018

The GBPUSD has continued to be bearish and move lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3225, 1.3290 and 1.3305.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. There are hints that the Bank of England (BOE) will hike the interest rate again in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

The Chair of the Fed will speak at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a US crude oil inventories figure at 1430 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 20.06.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support around the recent lows at 0.6885. The NZDUSD has been down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside momentum could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 0.6920 and 0.6965 and around the bearish moving averages. An attempt to swing lower could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support at 0.6885.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 2.00% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – there is some economic uncertainty caused by New Zealand’s GDP and CPI figures. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

The Fed will speak at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a US crude oil inventories figure at 1430 UTC. A New Zealand GDP figure will be released at 2245 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 20.06.2018

Price has continued to be bullish and swing higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCAD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3200 and 1.3160. Price is looking a little over-extended, suggesting that the USDCAD may be due a bearish retrace move.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

The Fed will speak at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a US crude oil inventories figure at 1430 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 20.06.2018

The USDCHF continues to be choppy ad indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 0.9800, 0.9825, 0.9890, 0.9910, 0.9915 and 0.9985. If price closes above the horizontal resistance at 0.9985, the USDCHF could attempt a bullish move higher.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

The Fed will speak at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a US crude oil inventories figure at 1430 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

USDJPY - 20.06.2018

The USDJPY has formed a lower swing low. Price action is forming a potential head and shoulder reversal pattern and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all suggesting that the USDJPY may start down-trending. Selling opportunities could exist around the 50.% and 61.8% Fib levels and around the longer-term moving average. A bearish move may find support around the horizontal levels at 109.55, 109.25 and 109.05.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

The Governor of the BOJ and the Chair of the Fed will speak at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a US crude oil inventories figure at 1430 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 20.06.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the 23.6% Fib level and the shorter-term moving average and has since swung lower. GOLD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the selling momentum could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the horizontal levels at 1276.50 and 1283.85 and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages. GOLD could find support around the new low at 1272.40.