TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 18, 2018

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish and move lower. The AUDUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that the selling momentum could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.7480, 0.7525 and 0.7560 and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages. Price could find support around the recent bounce at 0.7430.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

Minutes from a recent monetary policy meeting will be released at 0130 UTC.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been finding resistance around the 23.6% Fib level and support around the horizontal support at 0.8720 (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are still bearish and widening, signalling that the EURGBP may swing lower. Shorting opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8765 and 0.8780. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.8720 and 0.8700.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. There are hints that the Bank of England (BOE) will hike the interest rate again in the near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

The President of the ECB will speak at 1730 UTC today.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has reversed around the 23.6% Fib level. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that price could move lower. Selling opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the moving averages and around the previous support levels at 1.1645 and 1.1655. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 1.1560 and 1.1525.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

The President of the ECB will speak at 1730 UTC today.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The GBPUSD has reversed around the previous bearish channel support area (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downside momentum may continue. Opportunities to go short could exist around the previous channel support area (as resistance), around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal support at 1.3305. A bearish move may find support around the horizontal levels at 1.3240 and 1.3230.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. There are hints that the Bank of England (BOE) will hike the interest rate again in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to be under a number of key support levels and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all suggesting that the NZDUSD could start down-trending. Selling opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.6960 and 0.7000 and around the bearish moving averages. Price could find support around the horizontal levels at 0.6920 and 0.6885.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 2.00% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – there is some economic uncertainty caused by New Zealand’s GDP and CPI figures. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

Price action is forming a swing high above the recent consolidation area, suggesting that the USDCAD may start up-trending. The moving averages confirm this – they are bullish and widening. Price is currently retracing some of the recent bullish move. Opportunities to go long could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.3040. The USDCAD may continue to find resistance around the psychological level at 1.3200.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCHF has been bullish but is currently moving sideways. Price is ranging between the horizontal levels at 0.9950 and 0.9985. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCHF closes out of the range (break-out trade). The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that price could break to the upside of the range. A break to the downside may reverse around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 0.9910 and 0.9890.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

The USDJPY continues to uptrend within 2 bullish channels. The moving averages are bullish, signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the moving averages, around both channel support areas and around the recent swing low at 109.90. A move higher could be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 110.90 and around the channel resistance areas.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish and has moved below the recent consolidation area, suggesting that GOLD could start down-trending. The moving averages have just crossed bearish – confirming the potential downtrend. If price starts to retrace, shorting opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the previous horizontal support at 1290.50 and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.

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