TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 13, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 13.06.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD reversed around the 50.0% Fib level and the longer-term moving average and has since been bearish. As also suggested, price has found support around the 0.7560 horizontal level. The moving averages are bearish, signalling that the downside momentum may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal resistance at 0.7620. A bearish move may find support around the horizontal levels at 0.7560 and 0.7525. The AUDUSD may start ranging between the horizontal levels at 0.7560 and 0.7620.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US PPI figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1430 UTC. The FOMC will release economic projections, a statement and the official fund rate at 1800 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC. Australian employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 0130 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 13.06.2018

The EURGBP has reversed around the horizontal resistance at 0.8830 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are moving sideways. The EURGBP is ranging between the horizontal support at 0.8765 and the horizontal resistance at 0.8830. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). If the EURGBP breaks to the downside, price could stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.8730, 0.8720 and 0.8700.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. There are hints that the Bank of England (BOE) will hike the interest rate again in the near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A UK CPI figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 13.06.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price became bearish off the diagonal resistance area. The moving averages are bearish and starting to widen, signalling that the EURUSD may start down-trending. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.1805 and 1.1835. Price may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 1.1735, 1.1655 and 1.1645. The EURUSD may start ranging between the horizontal levels at 1.1735 and 1.1805.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A US PPI figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1430 UTC. The FOMC will release economic projections, a statement and the official fund rate at 1800 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 13.06.2018

Price found resistance around the longer-term moving average and then the channel resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD continues to downtrend within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the horizontal levels at 1.3385, 1.3420 and 1.3430, around the moving averages and around the channel resistance area. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 1.3350, 1.3305 and 1.3260 and around the channel support area.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. There are hints that the Bank of England (BOE) will hike the interest rate again in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A UK CPI figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today. A US PPI figure will be announced at 1230 UTC. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1430 UTC. The FOMC will release economic projections, a statement and the official fund rate at 1800 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 13.06.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD has been finding support around the horizontal channel support area. Price continues to move within a horizontal channel at 0.7000-0.7055. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if the NZDUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). The moving averages are bearish and price action has formed a bearish channel, all suggesting that price may break to the downside. Selling opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance area. A move lower may find support around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6965 and 0.6955.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – there is some economic uncertainty caused by New Zealand’s GDP and CPI figures. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US PPI figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1430 UTC. The FOMC will release economic projections, a statement and the official fund rate at 1800 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 13.06.2018

The USDCAD has been finding resistance around the horizontal resistance at 1.3020 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the USDCAD could break to the upside. Buying opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 1.3040 and 1.3020, around the trend support area and around the dynamic support of the moving averages.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US PPI figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1430 UTC. The FOMC will release economic projections, a statement and the official fund rate at 1800 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 13.06.2018

The USDCHF has become indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 0.9800 and the horizontal resistance at 0.9890. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCHF closes out of the range (break-out trade). Trading opportunities could also exist around the identified diagonal support area and the horizontal resistance at 0.9910.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

A US PPI figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1430 UTC. The FOMC will release economic projections, a statement and the official fund rate at 1800 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

USDJPY - 13.06.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found support around the previous swing high at 110.20 and has since been bullish. The USDJPY is up-trending within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that the buying momentum could continue. Long opportunities may exist around the horizontal level at 110.20, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the bullish channel support area. The USDJPY could be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

A US PPI figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1430 UTC. The FOMC will release economic projections, a statement and the official fund rate at 1800 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 13.06.2018

Price has been finding support around the horizontal channel support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). GOLD continues to be indecisive and move within a horizontal channel at 1294.70 and 1301.45. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if GOLD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around the horizontal levels at 1290.50 and 1288.65. A break to the upside may find resistance around the horizontal levels at 1305.60 and 1307.50.