TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 12, 2018


XAUUSD - 12.06.2018

 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 12.06.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been reversing around the 50.0% Fib level. Price action has formed a lower swing low and the moving averages are bearish, signalling that the AUDUSD could attempt a bearish move. Opportunities to go short may exist around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels and around the longer-term moving average. A bearish move could find support around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal support levels at 0.7560 and 0.7525.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. The Governor of the RBA will speak at 0200 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 12.06.2018

Price has reversed around the horizontal resistance at 0.8830 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP continues to be choppy and indecisive. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.8700, 0.8720, 0.8730, 0.8765 and 0.8830. The moving averages are bullish, signalling that price may attempt a bullish move higher.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. There are hints that the Bank of England (BOE) will hike the interest rate again in the near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A UK averages earnings index will be announced at 0830 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 12.06.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD found support around the horizontal support level at 1.1740. Price has moved below the trend support area and the moving averages are tight and moving sideways, all signalling that the recent uptrend is now over. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 1.1645, 1.1735, 1.1740, 1.1805 and 1.1835, around the diagonal resistance area and around the previous trend support area (as resistance). The EURUSD could start ranging between the horizontal levels at 1.1735-1.1805.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 12.06.2018

The GBPUSD has been bearish. Price action has formed a bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all suggesting that the GBPUSD may move lower. Selling opportunities could exist around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.3385 and 1.3435, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the channel resistance area. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1.3305, 1.3260 and 1.3230.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. There are hints that the Bank of England (BOE) will hike the interest rate again in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A UK averages earnings index will be announced at 0830 UTC today. US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 12.06.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the range support area. The NZDUSD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price is moving within a horizontal channel at 0.7005-0.7055. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the NZDUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.6960 and 0.6955.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – there is some economic uncertainty caused by New Zealand’s GDP and CPI figures. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 12.06.2018

Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are currently moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1.2825, 1.2865, 1.2920, 1.3020 and 1.3040. If the USDCAD moves above the resistance at 1.3040, price may attempt a bullish move higher.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 12.06.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF has reversed around the horizontal resistance at 0.9890. Price continues to downtrend within a bearish channel. The moving averages have crossed bullish though, signalling that downside momentum is weakening. The USDCHF could start ranging between the horizontal levels at 0.9800 and 0.9890. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range, around the support and resistance areas of the bearish channel and around the horizontal resistance at 0.9910.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

USDJPY - 12.06.2018

The USDJPY has formed a bullish channel, suggesting that price may start up-trending. Opportunities to go long could exist around the previous swing high at 110.20, around the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 109.25 and 109.05. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the channel resistance area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 12.06.2018

Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the indecision. GOLD has formed a horizontal channel at 1294.70-1301.45. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around the horizontal levels at 1290.50 and 1288.65. A break to the upside could find resistance around the horizontal levels at 1305.60 and 1307.50.